Fall storm coming: Rainfall, timing and temperatures
AUSTIN (KXAN) — We've waited four months for this! A significant cold front will bring temperatures below normal and beneficial rain to the area in the first week of October.
The Setup
A strong area of low pressure, currently working through California, will drag a cold front through Central Texas.
This front should move through our area during the middle of the day on Thursday, but in the days before it arrives, up until it pushes through, we'll see increasing rain and storm chances.
The Rain and Timing
Well before the front arrives we'll have at least some opportunity for rain. Spotty showers and storms could pop up on Monday, but chances improve some on Tuesday.
By far our highest rain chances, near 70%, come Wednesday into Thursday. The weather should get wetter through the day on Wednesday with Wednesday night bringing the most widespread rain of all.
Rain and storms continue through at least Thursday morning, but as the cold front pushes through around midday into early afternoon the rain should slowly fade later on Thursday.
Some lingering showers and storms are possible Friday and Saturday, but rain chances will be much lower.
Amounts
Broadly speaking one to three inches of rain can be expected when you add up Wednesday and Thursday's rain and storms. Exactly where the heaviest will set up is a moving target, but the potential exists for localized amounts greater than three inches in some spots.
The Weather Prediction Center at the National Weather Service is forecasting a higher range of 2-4 inches for our area, which gives you some idea of the significance of this rain.
At this point I'm not ready to say that everyone will get 2 inches, but it does appear we've got a good shot at significant rain.
Weather Threats & Concerns
The Weather Prediction Center already has the entire area in a 2 out of 4 flash flooding threat for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Despite widespread exceptional drought, too much rain too quickly could still cause localized flooding problems in some stronger thunderstorms.
Severe storms are possible Wednesday into Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center hasn't highlighted any particular threat just yet, but this setup should at least pose a marginal wind threat in any linear clusters of storms that push through the area.
The Preparation
The best way to prepare is to make sure you have a way to stay weather aware. Forecast specifics can change and we'll inform you of any last minute changes or adjustments to the forecast all the way through the week.
Check back with us and the KXAN Weather App so that you're informed on the day.
The Relief
Thursday's cold front brings heat relief the kind we haven't seen since May. We're looking at the beginning of a long stretch of temperatures in the 80s starting Thursday. We're also forecasting overnight lows dropping into the 60s by the end of the week, which would make it cool enough to open up the windows at night.
After one of the hottest summers on record, we've all been waiting for this relief for a long time. Enjoy it! You deserve it!