Opinion: Looking at how the European places work this season – Could Spurs miss out?

Even after a huge 3-2 win at league leaders Manchester City, Tottenham still sits outside the European spots in the league table. Could they miss out entirely?

While Spurs came away with a big victory behind a world-class Harry Kane performance, every team they are trying to catch in the race for the top four picked up key points as well.

While West Ham only managed a draw with Newcastle, Manchester United, Arsenal, and Wolves each took all three points to stay in front of Spurs in the table.

So, even after completing the league double over the top-of-the-table Cityzens, Tottenham still finds themselves sitting in eighth place. Is it possible they don’t play any European football next season?

It’s all about qualifying

Any given campaign, at least five teams from England’s top-flight reach one of now three European competitions (Champions League, Europa League, and Europa Conference League). Finishing in the top-four sends you to the Champions League while finishing fifth means Europa League football.

Last year Spurs took the seventh spot, clinching a spot in the inaugural Europa Conference League seeing as the automatic spot that goes to the Carabao Cup winners was forfeited by Man City’s league title.

While the Carabao Cup winners go to the Conference League, the FA Cup winners head to the Europa League. But since Leicester City finished inside the top five automatic European spots, the honour went to West Ham in sixth.

Since this season’s Carabao Cup winner will almost certainly be in the top four (Liverpool and Chelsea) the winner’s spot will slot to the team in the sixth – currently Arsenal. But if a team inside the top five again wins the FA Cup (more than likely), Arsenal would be playing in the Europa League while Wolves would make a Conference League debut.

What about Tottenham?

And there sit Tottenham in the eighth spot, one point back of a likely return to the Conference League, while also three points clear of a possible Europa League appearance and seven points from the coveted final Champions League spot.

Still, it’s hard to see Spurs missing out altogether. They’ve appeared in European competition in 15 of the last 16 seasons dating back to the 2006-07 UEFA Cup. Even after what was considered one of the worst seasons of recent memory last campaign, the club still found a way to sneak into the Conference League on the last day of the season.

Maximum points needed

The team also has games in hand on most of the teams in front of them. While they are even on matches played with the Gunners (23), they have a game in hand on Wolves and three apiece on West Ham and Man United.

The thing is though is that they don’t control their own destiny. Games in hand only have fans looking at the table and seeing how far up they can go, adding up points that aren’t guaranteed. They have to win those few games first, and then have 12 more to play after that.

While Spurs have a chance to make up the points, they have also dropped games to Wolves, Man United, and Arsenal, teams they are chasing for European spots. They’ve also dropped points to Southampton (twice), Crystal Palace, and relegation-threatened Everton.

And while the win over Man City was exciting and showed the potential of what the team could be, the issue this season has been that they haven’t come anywhere near their best. Just before the big win at the weekend, they lost home matches to Saints and Wolves.

Inconsistency (possibly) has a price

A team that is this inconsistent could very well fall short of the Champions League. And while reaching the top four should be the main goal – and winning the FA Cup – for the rest of the season, Spurs must be careful to avoid dropping more points than they shouldn’t be. 

If they can’t put a run together and pick up needed victories, they could miss out on European football entirely for the first time in over a decade.

And that would be a disaster even Antonio Conte or Harry Kane can’t fix. 

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