Nico Hoerner’s Contract Extension Could Look Something Like This

Quick question, what current position player in the Cubs organization has agreed to a contract extension with the team before hitting free agency? The answer is David Bote, who signed a five-year, $15 million deal with the Cubs on April 3, 2019. Starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks was also agreed to a contract extension in 2019, signing a five-year, $55 million deal with the Cubs.

Prior to those two deals, the last time the Cubs had a meaningful contract extension with one of their players was in 2013, when they signed Anthony Rizzo to a seven-year, $41 million deal that also included club options for 2020 and 2021. I’ve already written about Ian Happ and what a contract extension could look like for him, but I’ll admit that negotiating with him now a year away from being able to become a free agent is a lot more difficult than working something out with Nico Hoerner.

Cubs fans know exactly how contract talks can go nowhere fast, with Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Báez and Willson Contreras all eventually leaving the team. But like Rizzo, if the Cubs truly believe in Hoerner, then the time is now for Jed Hoyer to make sure Hoerner is a lock at second base for many years to come.

Hoerner, 25, is still under team control through the 2025 season, with 2023 being his first arbitration eligible season. MLB Trade Rumors projects Hoerner to earn about $2.8 million with the Cubs in 2023.

Way back at the start of the offseason, Hoyer briefly mentioned the team beginning to have talks with Happ and Hoerner on a contract extension and it’s Hoerner, who Cubs beat reporter Sahadev Sharma predicts will agree to one in 2023.

Here’s what Sharma wrote in The Athletic, breaking down what a contract extension for Hoerner could look like.

As far as second basemen go, there aren’t many recent deals that are good comps for Hoerner. David Fletcher received five years and $26 million following a shortened 2020 that is the outlier for his career (121 wRC+ that year, with 96 his high in any other season) thus far. Nearly five years ago, the Diamondbacks extended Ketel Marte for five years and $24 million. Like Hoerner, Marte had three more years of arbitration left, but he was coming off a below-average offensive season and was still two years away from really breaking out. Ozzie Albies’ extension with Atlanta happened in early 2019 and came in at a wildly team-friendly seven years and $35 million with two team options tacked on.

It will likely take more money than Marte’s first contract with Arizona (he signed another extension this past spring), but the years make sense. A higher AAV than Albies also feels likely, but this all seems relatively doable for the Hoyer and the Cubs. If they can tack on at least two years, perhaps more, to Hoerner’s remaining three in Chicago and give him some financial security, there’s no reason the Cubs can’t lock up their second baseman for the next half-decade.

So, we’re most likely looking at a five-year extension for Hoerner, which would cover the next three seasons of arbitration and then two free agent years. In terms of the total amount of money, Sharma looks at Ketel Marte and Ozzie Albies’ deals that were worth $24 million and $35 million, respectively, and it’s no surprise that Hoerner would be signing for more than $5 million a year. Those deals also happened 3-4 years ago. The market is obviously different and the Albies contract specifically was a ridiculous team-friendly deal.

I’m thinking the Cubs can easily offer Hoerner a five-year, $50 million contract extension. Include some options at the end to increase the overall value, but there’s no question that the Cubs should be seriously having these talks with Hoerner right now. He’s coming off his best season, taking positive sides offensively and remaining relatively healthy throughout the year. The Cubs already know Hoerner has the ability to become a gold glove winner at second and if the offense continues to develop, then we’re talking about All-Star potential.

You can’t let what happened to the previous core happen again, if the team really does believe in Nico Hoerner’s future. Another 4 WAR season and the price will only get higher for Hoerner.