The 10 biggest risks the world faces in 2018

"Let's be honest: 2018 doesn't feel good," Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan write in their annual Top Risks report.

"Yes, markets are soaring and the economy isn't bad, but citizens are divided," Bremmer and Kupchan write. "Governments aren't doing much governing. And the global order is unraveling."

Their assessment of the biggest risks the world faces in 2018 spans the planet, from individual countries to major global trends. Something big could happen, they warn, which could shake the world unlike anything seen in a decade.

"If we had to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis — the geopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown — it feels like 2018," Bremmer and Kupchan write. "Sorry."

Here's what the Eurasia Group sees as the major risks for 2018:

1. China filling a global leadership vacuum

Kham/Pool Photo via AP

Top of the list is the risk of a powerful and modern China filling in a void left by the United States in for the position of global leader.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is " the strongest Chinese president since Mao Zedong," Bremmer and Kupchan write. More countries are beginning to turn to China because of its "noninterference in the political and economic lives of other countries."

As Eurasia Group puts it — "At a moment of policy incoherence and dysfunction in Washington, China's government has redefined the country's external environment, set new rules within it, and developed the world’s most effective global trade and investment strategy."

2. Accidents

Reuters

The analysts of the Eurasia Group are worried about an accident that could spark a larger conflict.

"There's been no major geopolitical crisis since 9/11, and none created by governments since the Cuban missile crisis,"Bremmer and Kupchan write. "But there are now many places where a misstep or misjudgment could provoke serious international conflict."

The biggest risk areas are the Korean Peninsula, Syria, Eastern Europe, and Iraq, they note. The Eurasia Group report also points out that "competition and conflict in cyberspace," as well as "dispersal of Islamic State fighters," pose significant risks. 

3. Global tech cold war

Associated Press

Eurasia Group's report notes that "the world’s biggest fight over economic power centers on the development of new information technologies," like artificial intelligence and supercomputing. 

Bremmer and Kupchan write that the US and China will vie for dominance in this regard, and will try to dominate the markets, specifically in Africa, India, Brazil, and Europe.

Whichever country comes out on top will likely set the standards for the future, potentially with weaponized AI.

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