What Baghdadi's death means for the future of ISIS
When rumblings of the death of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi were first heard overnight before President Trump confirmed the news Sunday morning, it inevitably drew comparisons to the death of former Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden in 2011. But experts have warned the two events might not be so similar.
It mostly has to do with the differences in how ISIS and Al Qaeda are structured. The latter was heavily reliant on Bin Laden's singular leadership and charisma, so while the terrorist organization still exists, it has weakened somewhat. Experts don't think that will necessarily happen with ISIS, which has placed a greater emphasis on organizational structure.
From the beginning, ISIS took considerable security measures to obscure Baghdadi's identity - vs. Al Qaeda's reliance on Osama Bin Laden as the iconic "face" of the organization.
Baghdadi was deliberately downplayed in all of ISIS' propaganda -- unlike much of Al Qaeda's.— Ms. Entropy / سيدة الفتنة (@MsEntropy) October 27, 2019
That is not to say Baghdadi's death is irrelevant; he was an important figure within ISIS and his absence will surely negatively affect his followers and could hinder international recruitment which has already slowed in recent years, but analysts expect ISIS will be able to withstand the loss in some capacity, meaning the U.S. and its allies will likely have to continue to prevent the group's resurgence.
The group will transform - it won't disappear. That sort of process was already underway, and the death of a symbolic figure at the top is likely to speed it up. What does 'ISIS 3.0' look like? Will other international affiliates transform into their own brands altogether?
— ᴅʀ ʜ.ᴀ. ʜᴇʟʟʏᴇʀ (@hahellyer) October 27, 2019