Top Pollster Reveals Why Democrats Crushed The Elections
In this episode of the Beyond Politics podcast, celebrated Democratic pollster Jeff Pollock reveals the inside story on what actually happened in the shocking 2022 elections and what it means for the future. The pollster delves into the massive headwinds that Democrats were facing: President Biden's low approval ratings, high inflation, and historic trends suggesting that Democrats could lose up to 45 seats in the US House of Representatives.
But he also shows how subtle data in the runup to the midterms provided hints that something else was going on. Like the fact that voters who disapproved of the president still generally preferred Democrats for Congress! Polls also showed that independent voters were willing to stick with the Democrats when confronted with a slate of extreme Trump-endorsed candidates, and those voters made a critical difference.
Democrats also successfully leaned into messages about abortion and the new "MAGA" Republican brand that signaled to voters that Republican candidates had gone too far for them. Pollock also shares tons of additional nuggets: whether (and how) pollsters may have fixed their problems from 2016 and 2020, what lessons Democrats can take from their successes, and what dangers still lie ahead for each party.