Labor slides in a federal Newspoll; NSW polls give Labor a modest lead

A federal Newspoll, conducted March 1-4 from a sample of 1,530, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll in early February. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down one), 35% Coalition (up one), 10% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (steady).

While the Coalition only gained one point on two party vote, the change in primary votes implies that