Aaron Rodgers will lose his greatest NFL advantage when he leaves the Packers
Aaron Rodgers is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. There’s no way around it. Whether he calls it quits next offseason or five years from now, his status is cemented.
He’s also had the extreme fortune of playing every home game the last 18 years at one of the most storied stadiums in league history, Lambeau Field.
That’s probably going to change in 2023.
Rodgers made clear his desire to leave the Green Bay Packers for the New York Jets this offseason, which would make MetLife Stadium his new home.
Fans everywhere were pumped, but his career record away from Lambeau doesn’t paint a pretty picture of how that might go.
Rodgers has an 91-23-1 career record in homes games and just a 59-56 record on the road. That translated against the spread too, where he’s 73-42-4 at home.
Bettors absolutely ate picking Rodgers to cover at Lambeau.
Aaron Rodgers is 73-42-4 ATS at Lambeau Field
A $100 bettor would be up $2,709 backing Rodgers at Lambeau, making him the most-profitable home QB over the last 20 years
(via @Bet_Labs) pic.twitter.com/hYUGsRd6Xi
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) March 15, 2023
Once he leaves, that advantage could be gone.
That’s not to say Lambeau Field made Rodgers a great player. He’s a big reason the Packers were so good at home. But the sample size is more than big enough to say homefield played a role in his success too. Even in the playoffs, Rodgers is 5-4 at home vs. 5-6 on the road.
His career numbers across the board drop away from Lambeau.
Sure, you could blame his teammates for why the Packers were so much worse on the road, but even the advantage his supporting cast got at Lambeau won’t be nearly as huge at MetLife. Especially when you consider Rodgers’ potential declining state at age 39 and a much tougher division that includes the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots.
The best place for Rodgers to be late in his career, if not a dome, was the place he was already at. The grass (or terrible turf) on the other side won’t be nearly as green.