Scotland v Italy: Six Nations 2023, Match Preview pt II – head to heads

There has been a fair bit of player turnover since these two sides last met in the Rome sunshine 372 days ago. Kyle Steyn is the only returning starter from the backline that defeated Italy 33 – 22 (although it’s worth noting that both Huw Jones and Duhan van der Merwe started the last time the Italians visited Edinburgh). Five of the dark blues’ pack played in the 2022 encounter – Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson, Sam Skinner and Hamish Watson.

Italy have retained 12 men who featured in their home fixture last year, including 7 starters. 11 of the starting XV who conceded over 50 points at Murrayfield in 2021 are included in the 23 for this fixture.

4 Scotland changes from last Test (v Ireland)

• 15 – Smith for Hogg [-]
• 10 – Kinghorn for Russell [-]
• 4 – Skinner for R. Gray [-]
• 7/6 – Watson for M. Fagerson with Ritchie to 6 [-]

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BACK 3 – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

1st time this unit has started together for Scotland

Both teams have had to move down their depth chart to cover for injury absences. There’s a sense though that despite Scotland missing centurion Stuart Hogg (for just the 4th time in the last 58 Six Nations’ matches) it’s actually Italy who are worse off due to being without Ange Capuozzo.

The Toulouse flyer only made his Test debut last spring (with a brace from the bench against Scotland of course) but he has become a talismanic figure and central to the supercharging of the Italian attack. His absence was crucial against Wales last week and there’s no question that the Azzurri are diminished without him.

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CENTRES – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

5th time this unit has started together for Scotland

Huwipulotu or Brenoncello? The Scottish centre pairing has been one of the high points of the campaign so far. In just 7 games so far for club and country, they have managed to form an instinctive understanding and complement each other so well, particularly with ball in hand. Little Nonz tees them up and Shuggy finishes them off.

On the other side, the midfield duo are also key to their side’s attacking shape. Juan Ignacio Brex more so than his junior colleague is a focal point for distribution with 35 passes in his last 2 games – although Tommaso Menoncello also passed more than he carried versus Ireland.

Scotland need to close down Brex in particular if they are to prevent Italy from finding the space they were able to manipulate against the Welsh and Irish.

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HALF BACKS – ADVANTAGE ITALY

2nd time this unit has started together for Scotland

As is so often the case, the respective stand offs face an intriguing battle on Saturday. Blair Kinghorn has primarily been deployed at 10 for Edinburgh this season, switching back to his original full back role due to an injury crisis to start off 2023. During the Six Nations, he has come off the bench and into the back 3 but reverts to stand off to tackle Italy.

For the visitors, Paolo Garbisi is their stand out stand off, a player they will plan to build their team around for years to come. Despite that, he has spent much of the current campaign playing at inside centre for his club, Montpellier, to accommodate the French out half, Louis Carbonel.

Neither player has necessarily had the ideal preparation for a full-blooded Test match at 10 but both are uber talents with a rugby ball in their hands and the entertainment value should hopefully be high!

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FRONT ROW – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

9th time this unit has started together for Scotland

This starting front row has become the bedrock of the Scottish pack. Scrummaging has been reasonable – some good, some bad – but this trio provides massive energy around the park, particularly with the carrying of Pierre Schoeman and the defensive efforts of all three.

The Italian unit has a similar profile – capable of big scrums on occasion but prone to the odd penalty too and with a real focus on work rate in open play. Any Scottish fans who have watched previous clashes versus Italy will be well aware of the frustration of losing jackal turnovers to Danilo Fischetti and Marco Riccioni! These two players have to be a focus for clearouts if they are lurking around the tackle area.

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SECOND ROW – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

1st time this unit has started together for Scotland

Scotland began the tournament with Richie Gray and Grant Gilchrist in tandem but will finish it with a very different duo who are starting together for the first time. In fact, apart from a single RWC warmup match against France when he was paired with Scott Cummings, Sam Skinner has only ever started alongside Gilchrist in his previous appearances for the dark blues at lock.

Federico Ruzza has been the number 1 lineout target for any side across this season’s Six Nations. He may feel the need to take on even more responsibility in this area with a very junior second row partner rather than his usual companion, Niccolo Cannone. Both sides love to play off lineout ball so any disruption to that source will be a big win for the opposition.

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BACK ROW – ADVANTAGE ITALY

1st time this unit has started together for Scotland

Italian back rows have almost always been tough to play against. During their last spell of managing regular wins against Scotland, the likes of Sergio Parisse, Mauro Bergmasco, Alessandro Zanni and, latterly, Glasgow favourite Simone Favaro were among a group of players who could harass, spoil and overpower (and in Parisse’s case, so much more).

The current group is on a strong trajectory towards bearing comparison with some of those previous legends of the Italian game. There is an excellent balance to their play with Sebastian Negri the powerhouse carrier, Lorenzo Cannone providing the soft skills and Michele Lamaro the glue that holds it all together.

Being picky, there is no dominating jackal threat (although they are all capable of contributing) but with so many breakdowns going uncontested these days – as well as their front row providing ruck turnovers – it’s not something that is necessarily going to hurt Italy too much.

In terms of playing styles, Scotland have reverted to what amounts to a twin opensides approach that has served them well on many previous occasions. As he has grown into the blindside role, Jamie Ritchie has developed his lineout work and spends an awful lot of time putting his body on the line to slow ball – only one player has more effective defensive ruck entries than Scotland’s skipper during the 2023 Six Nations.

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FORWARD REPLACEMENTS – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

Rookie hookers. Veteran props. Locks who might expect to fight their way back into the starting lineup for the World Cup. There are a lot of similarities between the respective groups of forwards on the benches. The key difference is, of course, Italy’s decision to go with a 6 / 2 split.

This could come into its own if the game is bogged down by poor weather and turns into a battle of attrition. It could also leave them exposed if the game opens up – which seems almost certain if the weather is reasonable due to both sides’ favoured style of play.

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BACK REPLACEMENTS – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

Italy making sure that both their starting and replacement scrum halves have the same first name is a nice touch. It saves the front row having to think too much about what to shout when having a go at the pint-sized fella who keeps bossing them around…

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* Six Nations debut
** Test debut

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Miscellany

– This will be the first time that Matt Fagerson has played from the bench since the Autumn Nations Series’ match against Japan in 2021. Prior to this fixture, Zander’s wee brother had started 13 games in a row for Scotland.

– Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones are the first Scottish centre pairing to start all 5 matches in a Six Nations since 2017. Other midfield duos who have achieved this feat are:

• 2017 – Alex Dunbar / Huw Jones
• 2013 – Matt Scott / Sean Lamont
• 2005 – Hugo Southwell / Andy Craig

– Jonny Gray will earn his 77th cap – there are now just 7 players ahead of the younger Gray in the all-time caps list for Scotland Men.

– George Turner has more Test tries than the combined tally of Italy’s starting pack – 9 for George, 8 for the Italians.

– Scotland will play their 499th game in the history of the tournament (Home Nations, Five Nations and Six Nations). See you in 323 days time when we do it all again and the dark blues become the first nation to hit 500 matches when they take on Wales in Cardiff!

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