Twins series preview: Small market spenders no more
Can the Royals keep up with the high-spending Twins?
In the 1990s, as the gap between the haves and have-nots widened in baseball, the Twins were among the poverty franchises at the bottom of the league with the Royals. They traded away veterans, and maintained a low payroll with homegrown players. Those players would eventually form a core that had some success in the late 90s and 2000s, and once the team moved into a new open-air downtown stadium in 2010, the purse-strings began to loosen. In recent years the team has signed star outfielder Byron Buxton to a seven-year, $100 million deal, landed free agent Carlos Correa with a six-year, $200 million deal, and this month signed pitcher Pablo López to a four-year, $73.5 million extension. All this comes as Forbes estimates their annual revenues at $267 million, about the same amount the Royals are estimated to bring in.
The result so far this year is a team in first place with a 14-11 record. The offense isn’t yet clicking on all cylinders - they are ninth in the league in runs scored per game and have a below average wRC+ of 98. Slow starts by Correa and third baseman Jose Miranda have hurt, but they should get a boost by the recent return of infielder Jorge Polanco, who has been on a tear in his first five games, going 9-for-22 with five extra base hits. As a team, they have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball, but have the eighth-lowest walk rate.
Twins starting pitchers have the fourth-best ERA in baseball - and not a single one of them is homegrown. Sonny Gray has paced the rotation with a 0.62 ERA in his first five starts, the best among all qualified pitchers, and he is one of six qualified pitchers yet to allow a home run. He tossed five shutout innings against the Royals in the second game of the year, although he did walk four hitters. Joe Ryan leads baseball with a 5-0 record, and he has the third-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in baseball so far. Pablo López has the seventh-highest strikeout rate among starters with his 95 mph fastball. Tyler Mahle has been solid this year with a 3.32 ERA and he features a 93 mph fastball, a sinker, a cutter, and occasionally a slider.
Hard-throwing Jhoan Duran has taken over closer duties for the Twins, and he features a 101 mph heater that is the fastest in baseball. Former Royals reliever Jorge López has yet to allow a walk or a run this year and has one of the best chase rates in baseball. Lefty Jovani Moran has been very wild this year, but Caleb Thielbar has been effective from the left side The Twins are 12-1 when leading after six innings this year.
Perhaps the Royals are looking to emulate the Twins’ path to contention with their own downtown stadium. In the meantime, they need to build with a young core as the Twins did in the 90s, and hopefully they can have some similar success in developing young players into contenders.