Atlantic hurricane projections jump despite El Niño

AUSTIN (KXAN) -- Colorado State University issued its third Atlantic hurricane forecast for 2023 and they now expect a busier than normal hurricane season.

Earlier projections weighed heavily on the belief that El Niño would be the dominating force this year. El Niño typically acts to suppress tropical activity to near or below normal in the Atlantic.

Now, we're already four storms into the season after an unnamed sub-tropical storm in January, and Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy in June. The active early season and the record warm or near record warm sea surface water temperatures in the Atlantic are pushing the forecast in a more active direction.

Colorado State University's revised forecast now calls for a total of 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

In a typical hurricane season, we get 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

In late May, NOAA released their Atlantic hurricane forecast calling for a near-average hurricane season.

Major hurricane landfall forecast

With this updated forecast, CSU also issued its newest forecast for major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) landfalls. They now put the odds of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline at 50%, compared to 43% in an average year.

The odds of a Gulf Coast (Florida panhandle to Brownsville, Texas) major hurricane making landfall are 32% compared to a historical average of 27%.

All this is to say that a quieter hurricane season is looking less likely, but all it takes is one storm making landfall to cause devastation, regardless of the rest of the season.