Expecting to see northern lights in Oregon this week? You may be disappointed

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — There’s an aurora borealis fallacy going around, and OMSI Director of Science Education Jim Todd is dispelling rumors that the northern lights will be visible in Portland or any other part of Oregon this week.

According to a flurry of articles published in the last few days by major news sources like the Oregonian, the Associated Press and NBC and CBS News, a powerful solar storm was set to make the northern lights visible in 17 U.S. states Thursday, including “Alaska, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, Indiana, Maine and Maryland.”

The information behind these articles was based on an auroral forecast provided by the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks — an auroral forecast deemed inaccurate by experts like Todd and the team of science reporters with the publication EarthSky.

“Many of you have shared and reached out to me about the aurora forecast around July 13,” Todd said. “Unfortunately, the bad news is the forecast has been downgraded.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration states that aurora borealis visibility is made possible through two main factors: geomagnetic activity and location.

“Being able to see the aurora depends mainly on two factors, geomagnetic activity (the degree of disturbance of the earth’s magnetic field at the time) and your geographic location,” NOAA says. “Of course, local weather, light pollution from city lights, a full moon, and other factors can affect your viewing possibilities as well.”

The northern lights are most often visible in areas relatively close to the north pole. But, when geomagnetic activity increases, the radius of the aurora expands to lower-latitude areas that are typically outside of the viewing range like Portland.  Exceptionally strong geomagnetic activity can extend aurora visibility as close to the equator as the American South. 

While Portland is not expected to see the northern lights this week, Todd said that the phenomenon will likely happen again within a few years.

“We will get a show eventually within the next few years as the sun continues to expand,” Todd said. “I look forward to seeing the show from Oregon like everyone else. It's about the timing and strength of the storms.”