When on Wall Street, we made predictions for a living. We tried to predict the implications of events (which we also had to predict) on stock and bond prices, act on these predictions, and the key to success was to be right more often than wrong. Predicting long term trends was the best career strategy because it took a long time before the recipient of the advice could tell how good it was. So, with an active war under way, a heat dome frying the South and West, the US Congress unable to pass a defense budget, and Saudi Arabia now focusing…
