FACT CHECK: No reports of imminent Taal eruption, quake
Claim: Self-proclaimed Filipino psychic Rudy Baldwin claimed that Taal Volcano is due for a violent eruption that will also cause earthquakes.
Rating: FALSE
Why we fact-checked this: Rudy Baldwin, the poster of the claim, has been fact-checked by Rappler numerous times for “predictions” of disasters. The Facebook page has 4.1 million followers, while the post itself has 922 reactions, 61 comments, and 86 shares.
The post dated July 23 reads: “BATANGAS MAGING MAINGAT AT MAGING HANDA DAHIL GIGISING SI TAAL NG MATINDI AT ME NAKITA AKONG YAYANIG NA MALAKAS NA LINDOL. LAGI LANG NATIN TANDAAN ANG MANALANGIN PALAGI.”
(Batangas, be careful and be prepared because Taal will wake up violently, and I saw a strong earthquake. Let’s always remember to pray.)
The post also includes a screenshot of a supposed prediction made on May 30, warning of three earthquakes in Batangas that will especially affect the city of Lipa.
No warnings from officials: As of Wednesday, July 26, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) has not made any announcements regarding Taal Volcano’s imminent eruption.
According to the agency’s Taal Volcano Summary of 24 Hour Observation, the volcano is currently at Alert Level 1, indicating “low-level unrest.” This means that there is a moderate level of seismic activity and that steam-driven, gas, or hydrothermal explosions can occur without warning.
Predicting natural disasters: According to the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program, scientists forecast eruptions by looking at geologic history, real-time monitoring using proper equipment, and understanding changes in the behavior of a specific volcano.
While monitoring-based volcanic eruption forecasts are becoming much more reliable, these remain imperfect: “Even with the best of monitoring and interpretations, reliable forecasts are rarely possible more than a few days in advance of an eruption.”
As for the supposed prediction of an imminent quake resulting from Taal’s eruption, there is currently no way to predict the exact time and place where an earthquake would occur.
Phivolcs has previously said that at present, “no one has the capacity to determine when an earthquake will strike, at what precise magnitude, and where the strong one will hit.”
Baldwin’s claim also fails the three elements of an earthquake prediction as it does not specify the exact date and time, location, and magnitude of the quake.
Previous fact-checks: Rudy Baldwin has been repeatedly fact-checked by Rappler in the past for making “predictions” of disasters such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions:
- FACT CHECK: No prediction of looming magnitude 7 earthquake to hit Bohol
- FACT CHECK: No prediction of imminent volcanic eruption in Bukidnon
- FACT CHECK: No prediction of earthquakes happening ‘in the coming days’
– Katarina Ruflo/Rappler.com
Katarina Ruflo is a graduate of Rappler’s fact-checking mentorship program. This fact check was reviewed by a member of Rappler’s research team and a senior editor. Learn more about Rappler’s fact-checking mentorship program here.
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