Justin Fields is an astonishingly popular preseason bet to win NFL MVP

Every year bettors are searching for value in betting long-shot players to win NFL MVP. A few seasons ago in 2019, ex-Chicago Bears QB Mitch Trubisky and ex-Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield had the public’s betting attention.

This year, that attention has shifted to Chicago Bears second-year QB Justin Fields at several sportsbooks.

Fields has the greatest number of bets (18.7%) to win the award at PointsBet USA, and represents the sportsbook’s biggest liability in the MVP market. So many people have bet on Fields, in fact, that has more than double the liability of the next closest player (San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey). He opened at 30-1 odds, but those have been cut in half to where he currently sits at 15-1.

Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields has the most number of bets to win NFL MVP at multiple sportsbooks.

At @PointsBetUSA, Fields has more than DOUBLE the total liability of any other player to win MVP pic.twitter.com/BjeQ00bCsO

— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) August 1, 2023

“The Bears have been a very popular futures bet in general heading into the season [at our shop],” PointsBet senior editor Max Meyer told BetFTW in a text message. “Many bettors like going for longer shots in this market like Trey Lance or Tua Tagovailoa last year. Fields’ odds have come down where he isn’t a long shot anymore, but there’s still been interest on him in this price range.”

Quarterbacks have won the NFL MVP in 10 straight seasons and 14 of the past 15 campaigns, with Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson the only outlier in 2007.

Fields also had the most tickets to win NFL MVP at Caesars, and currently represents their second-biggest liability behind Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson.

While many QBs make a jump between Year 1 and Year 2, any chance Fields would have to win NFL MVP would necessitate the Bears making the postseason. And remember, this is a team that owned the No. 1 overall pick last season (before trading it to the Carolina Panthers) due to a 3-14 record.

Fields has stated publicly that he wants to become the first Bears QB ever to throw for 4,000 yards this season; his over/under for passing yards at DraftKings Sportsbook is 2,850.5.

“Those awards are predicated on team success and the Bears have a lot of work to do,” Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars Sportsbook, said. “Stranger things have happened and people are bullish on the Bears. If Chicago can make the playoffs, he has a chance.”