Can TCU return to CFP? 5 burning questions in the Big 12

1. Can Texas or Oklahoma capture a conference title before leaving for the SEC?

Although recent history is on the Sooners’ side — Oklahoma has won six Big 12 titles since 2015 — it’s the Longhorns who are more equipped to make a league championship run. Yes, quarterback Dillon Gabriel is back but Oklahoma will need to improve defensively after going 0-6 when giving up more than 200 rushing yards last season. Texas returns quarterback Quinn Ewers who will have weapons to throw to this year, including preseason All-Big 12 team picks Xavier Worthy and Ja’Tavion Sanders. Combine that with a stout defense led by Big 12 preseason defensive player of the year Jaylan Ford at linebacker and it’s clear to see why the Longhorns are the favorite to win the conference ahead of joining the SEC in 2024.

2. Is it possible for TCU to return to the College Football Playoff?

The Horned Frogs don’t care that Texas and Oklahoma were voted near the top of the Big 12 preseason poll for yet another year. Otherwise, TCU wouldn’t have shocked the league and the country last season when they reached the College Football Playoff after being voted to finish seventh (out of 10) in the league’s 2022 preseason poll. Accomplishing such a feat once again, however, will be no easy task. In the nine-year history of the CFP, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia, Notre Dame and Michigan have accounted for 29 of the 36 available semifinal spots. In other words, the margin to return to the CFP is slim. With that said, TCU coach Sonny Dykes turned to the transfer portal to rebuild his roster after losing 66% of his team’s offensive production.

3. How will the four newcomers perform in Year One?

Of the four new Big 12 members, UCF appears to be best suited to have success in their first season of Power Five action. The Knights were voted to finish eighth (out of 14) in the league’s preseason poll while BYU, Houston and Cincinnati made up spots 11-13. Only West Virginia was predicted to finish lower. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the four new schools are expected to finish in the bottom half of the league standings. When TCU and West Virginia joined the Big 12 in 2012, the Horned Frogs and the Mountaineers went 7-6 overall while posting a 4-5 records in league play. Despite the jump in competition, UCF coach Gus Malzahn has upgraded his roster to a Power Five level since his arrival in 2021.

4. Could Kansas State repeat as conference champions?

It’s easy to forget that Kansas State is the program looking to defend its conference championship. The Wildcats were voted to finish second in the Big 12 preseason poll and with good reason. Although they lost stars such as running back Deuce Vaughn, receiver Malik Knowles, defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah and corner Julius Brents, the Wildcats added transfers in former FSU running back Treshaun Ward, who was voted as the preseason Big 12 newcomer of the year, and wide receiver Keagan Johnson from Iowa. All-American guard Cooper Beebe anchors an experienced offensive line as well. If K-State can regroup and build on last year’s success, it should be in position to repeat.

5. Which school emerges as a darkhorse?

While it might be easy to peg one of the four new schools as a dark horse candidate in the race to win a Big 12 title this year — looking at you, UCF — it seems possible that Kansas can make a jump towards the top of the conference. The reason? Quarterback Jalon Daniels. The 6-foot signal caller started the first six games for the Jayhawks and led them to a 5-0 start before suffering a shoulder injury in a home loss vs. TCU. Kansas reverted to its old self without Daniels on the field, losing four of their next five games. Daniels finished the season with more than 2,000 passing yards and 25 total touchdowns (18 passing, 7 rushing). Although teams such as Texas Tech and Oklahoma State might be more poised for a special season, don’t overlook the Jayhawks this year with Daniels, the Big 12 preseason offensive player of the year, leading the way.

Email Jason Beede at jbeede@orlandosentinel.com or follow him on X, known as Twitter, at @therealBeede.