The 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year race is over before it even started

Welcome to the Winner’s Circle, a weekly column for BetFTW senior writer Prince J. Grimes to give his thoughts on what’s trending in sports betting.

I don’t mean to be dramatic, but the NBA Rookie of the Year race — if you can even call it a race — is over.

The regular season hasn’t even started, but after just a few preseason games, I’ve seen enough. Victor Wembanyama is going to win the award, and there’s nothing anyone can do to stop it.

The only thing that might potentially clear the way for somebody else to win the award is if Wembanyama suffers some sort of injury. But let’s hope that doesn’t happen, because from the things we’ve seen from him in the preseason, the No. 1 overall pick of this year’s draft is going to be extremely fun to watch this year.

Victor Wembanyama vs the Miami Heat highlights

In 23 minutes Wemby had 23 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 blocks on 10-15 shooting. Just insane pic.twitter.com/Wtfy2QAmmx

— Teg (@IQfor3) October 14, 2023

Now, for those who have been following the Wembanyama hype for a while, this may not seem like a bold proclamation — he’s been the betting favorite to win Rookie of the Year since before the San Antonio Spurs drafted him. However, there has been conversation over the last few months — including from myself — about Chet Holmgren or even Scoot Henderson potentially pushing for the award.

In fact, Henderson made a promise in August to win the award. I wrote back in June that Wembanyama wasn’t the lock people thought he was. A month later, Holmgren’s odds for the award started improving thanks to his Summer League play. But after watching Wembanyama in just two preseason games — including one against Holmgren — I’ve changed my mind. This dude is DIFFERENT, and I’m not sure how teams are going to stop him from doing whatever he wants or navigate around his presence on defense.

Against Holmgren and the Oklahoma City Thunder, he had 20 points in 19 minutes on 8-of-13 shooting (Holmgren had 21 points in 16 minutes). Against the Miami Heat, he had 23 points in 23 minutes on 10-of-15 shooting with three blocks.

But more than just how good Wembanyama is, he’s also doing things we simply haven’t seen before from someone his size. That adds to the fascination in his game, which plays into the narrative of his inevitable rise. His storyline is one of the biggest in the NBA this season, so if the award race is close, he’ll likely get the nod in the same way LeBron James won over Carmelo Anthony in 2003-04.

Wembanyama’s odds at BetMGM are +125, which are actually longer than they were earlier in the summer. Henderson and Holmgren are tied at +300. But I’m sold. As long as Wembanyama stays healthy, he’ll be the NBA’s Rookie of the Year.