We're finally getting the rainfall through next week, perhaps too much so
Today will be a cloudy day with light off-and-on rainfall. A front will work across the area later this afternoon, giving us cooler temperatures through the weekend. Highs today will be in the low-mid 70s, with those high temperatures occurring around the Noon hour. Thereafter, temperatures will drop through the rest of the afternoon and evening.
These light rains look to continue through the day tomorrow. It won't rain all day, nor will we see significant rainfall totals, but expect a drizzle during any part of the day. Highs tomorrow will be cooler, only getting into the upper 60s, after a morning start in the upper 50s.
Sunday will be a transition day, with the area getting a break from the rainfall and the atmosphere loading up for the next disturbance. A disturbance that will be quite strong and set the stage for a heavy rainfall threat across the area.
Both the European and GFS models now agree on the evolution of this system. An upper-level trough will get embedded in the Subtropical jet stream, moving towards the area. This will spawn a surface low across the northern Gulf on Monday, with this low pressure moving eastbound through Tuesday.
Near and just north of this surface low, heavy rainfall will be observed. Both the GFS and European models show the possibility of 4-6 inches of rainfall through Tuesday. The time interval in which we see these totals will be important. These rainfall totals over a 2-3 day period would be beneficial. These totals over a 12-hour period could be troublesome.
I'm still not anticipating a significant areal flood risk, however, as we have been abnormally dry, meaning the grounds should be able to handle this rainfall and dispose of it pretty quickly if it comes down slowly. Flash flooding may be more of a concern, however, as dry ground can actually work against us when rainfall rates get higher. The drier ground has more trouble absorbing a lot of rainfall quickly, so we'll see how this develops through Monday and Tuesday.