Commanders vs. Cowboys Thanksgiving Odds, Best Bets and Predictions

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The Cowboys are double-digit favorites for the third week in a row and the fourth time this season against the Commanders on Thanksgiving.

Washington (4–7) hit a new low last week in a home loss to the Giants as a heavy favorite while Dallas (7–3) went on the road and demolished the Panthers. The Cowboys have dominated the recent series history between these longtime rivals, though they fell 41–16 the last time they played the Commanders on Turkey Day back in 2020.

Dallas is an 11.5-point home favorite over Washington at AT&T Stadium in its 67th all-time Thanksgiving appearance. The over/under is set at 48.5 points, according to SI Sportsbook, which gives the Commanders an implied point total of 18.5 and the Cowboys an implied total of 30.

Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds and Game Info

Moneyline: Commanders (+460) | Cowboys (-654)

Spread: WAS +11.5 (-118) | DAL -11.5 (-110)

Total: 48.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Game Info: Thursday, Nov. 23, 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS

Commanders vs. Cowboys Best Bet: Cowboys -11.5 (-110)

Washington and Dallas Key Stats and Fun Facts:

• The Cowboys are 33–22–1 all-time on Thanksgiving and the Commanders are 4–8.

• Dallas (6–4) and Washington (6–5) are among the six NFL teams whose games hit the over more often than not.
• The Cowboys have won 12 in a row at home dating back to the 2022 season opener.

Washington coughed up six turnovers Sunday in a 31–19 loss to New York. Sam Howell, who leads the NFL in both passing yards (3,038) and sacks (51), threw three interceptions and is now tied with Josh Allen for the most in the league.

Tommy DeVito took nine sacks but the Giants never turned the ball over and the NFL’s lowest-scoring offense matched its season-high point total on the road with an undrafted rookie quarterback under center. Washington now has the worst turnover differential in the league (-8), which will make matters difficult against Dallas, a team that’s scored five defensive touchdowns already this year.

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Daron Bland ran back his fourth pick six of the season in Sunday’s 33–10 win in Carolina. The Panthers trailed 17–10 heading into the fourth, but the Cowboys scored twice (on a Tony Pollard touchdown run and Bland’s interception return) in the first two minutes of the final frame to put the game out of reach.

Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb could be in for a feast against a secondary that allows the third-most passing yards per game (258.5). Both players finally cooled off Sunday in Carolina but they did still connect for their fourth touchdown in as many games.

The gap between the Dallas defense and the Commanders’ is drastic. The former allows 17.5 points per game, the fifth-fewest, compared to the latter’s 27.7, the most in the NFL. Washington is also extremely porous against the pass while the Cowboys surrender the second-fewest passing yards. Though Eric Bienemy’s offense has shown it’s capable of putting up high point totals, only the Dolphins score more than Brian Schottenheimer’s unit.

The Commanders won 26–6 when these teams met in Week 18 last year in Howell’s first career start. Prescott was wildly inaccurate in that game, completing just 14 of 137 passes, one of which was returned for a pick six. That was only Prescott’s second loss of his career to Washington in 11 meetings.

Dallas has been one of the better teams to bet on league-wide this year with a 7–3 mark against the spread. That includes a 2–1 mark for bettors as a favorite of 10-plus points. The Commanders have a knack for keeping things close as they’re 3–0 against the spread as an underdog of six or more, but the Cowboys have yet to lose at home and are outscoring opponents by 25 points on average in Arlington.

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