MAGIC NUMBERS

It is absolutely not game day and that makes me sad but happy at the same time. I like the idea of sitting back to watch City and Liverpool lose. But I do not like the idea of a Monday night game. My weekend will feel empty.

We spoke on the Before the Whistle podcast and the view was that we have to start seeing some points getting dropped by title-race hunters.

I’m just not sure I’m seeing that this weekend.

City vs United has more chance of being a bloodbath for EtH than an upset. United players know there’s massive change coming and the football represents the uncertainty. Slow passing, zero pressing, little accountability, and a series of drab results that has them in nowhere land. Remember when everyone thought he was the next level because he ran around shouting ‘standards’ in every presser? Remember people slandering Arteta because EtH had an identity sorted inside 3 months? I do.

Forest vs Liverpool doesn’t feel like the sort of game that is going to give me any sort of pleasure. Klopp has a depleted starting 11, but I’m not sure Forest has enough killer in them. Though tired legs will start to work in our favor at some point, just not sure that’s today.

Arsenal has Sheffield United on Monday, that game should not be one we lose sleep over. Every newly promoted minnow has the chance to upset a big team, just not sure it’s this Sheff U side. They are a mess, they don’t have many threats, and they’ve been dreadful all season. 13 points, a negative 44 goal difference, it’s pretty bleak.

This game is a good one to give some minutes to folk who will need them for the run-in. Thomas Partey is back in action, Gabriel Jesus should be fit, Fabio Vieira is in the mixer.

Partey really is the unknown here. He’s been training for a while, but he hasn’t featured in a long time. Can he use his experience to get back to good form right away? Or will he need a run of games? If he can hit the ground run, he gives us so much optionality in midfield. Our seasons usually end on him exiting the starting 11, could his return give us a boost when we’re in boost mode already?

My big worry heading into this run-in is that we’re almost too good.

December and early January was not a good reflection of our performances. We were playing well, but getting punished in defence, and flopping in front of goal. I remember reading people talking about us padding xG or lacking quality chances – when the real issue was things sometimes just don’t drop for you in football.

Well, now everything is dropping for us. There’s no metric you can look at and not be THRILLED.

I don’t even understand what this graph means, but apparently, @DataAnalyticEPL is measuring dangerous shots and we don’t concede many of them.

Everywhere you look, there’s a wonderful chart that we’re smashing.

We aren’t getting lucky according to xG, whereas Liverpool clearly has been all season, and people outside me are finally noticing it.

Arsenal are just good. We defend really well, and our whole team is capable of scoring goals. No one beats us for setpieces. No one has a better press. And the squad us largely fit with top players coming back.

If data were reality – we’d be faves for the league. Sadly, it’s not. Liverpool has more big trophy winners than us and City has seen this moved 5 times before.

Where I’m trying to go with this meandering point is when things are too good to be true… something happens, especially when you’re an Arsenal fan. So I’m not getting my hopes up… or am I.

Ok, short post today. Get on the On The Whistle podcast and sorry I had to duck early. Work tings. Get it here!