U.S. shale oil production has four more years of growth before it peaks in 2028. This is according to a forecast by HSBC—the latest in a string of attempts to predict the fate of the shale patch. It is also the latest to add to the potential for surprise in the shale patch. Just like it happened last year. In 2023, oil traders kept watching the rig count and kept worrying that oil production was falling because the rig count trended lower for most of the year. And then producers began reporting output figures and the surprises started flooding…
