NBA mock draft 2024: Final projection for first round on draft day

It’s draft day. Here’s our final mock draft for the 2024 NBA Draft.

The fireworks have officially begun for the 2024 NBA Draft even before the Atlanta Hawks come on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick. Tuesday night saw a pair of wild trades involving the Brooklyn Nets: Mikal Bridges was traded to the New York Knicks for five future first round picks, then Brooklyn followed it up by reacquiring their own future draft picks from Houston for a group of future picks that mostly originally belonged to the Phoenix Suns. The Rockets plan to turn around and try to make a trade for Kevin Durant or Devin Booker.

Exhausted yet? The draft hasn’t even started yet, and the madness is just beginning.

Check out our top-60 big board for 2024 NBA Draft player rankings. Also read our feature on G League Ignite wing Ron Holland.

With the 2024 NBA Draft just hours away, here’s our final mock draft. We’ll have more analysis of the key selections that will define this draft after the table.

The Hawks remain a big mystery with No. 1 overall pick

The Hawks made a big jump up to No. 1 overall by winning the draft lottery after entering with the 10th best odds. About 12 hours before the pick is due, no one has any clue what Atlanta is going to do with it.

The Hawks have reportedly tried to trade down, but at this point they don’t have any takers. Atlanta is said to be seriously considering French wing Zaccharie Risacher and UConn center Donovan Clingan. Atlanta could also decide to pick French big man Alex Sarr, but they haven’t been able to bring him in for a work with his camp seemingly trying to push him to the Washington Wizards with the second pick.

The Hawks scouted Risacher in person during the French league playoffs, and brought him in for a workout. ESPN’s Jonathon Givony has maintained that Risacher is a strong front-runner to go No. 1 overall. “Most NBA teams consider him the best prospect in this draft,” Givony said of Risacher. “Almost every team I talk to at this stage has him ranked No. 1 in their internal big board.”

Givony gets better intel than anyone around the draft, and I don’t doubt his reporting at all.

At the same time, it was only two years ago that Jabari Smith Jr. was supposed to be the No. 1 overall pick to the Orlando Magic. When the Magic came on the clock, they selected Paolo Banchero instead.

Smith going No. 1 never really passed the sniff test to me in 2022, and Risacher going first doesn’t either. Risacher is viewed as a “high floor” prospect for his volume three-point shooting and capable defense against guards, but he lacks many of the traits typically possessed by a No. 1 overall pick. Risacher just doesn’t create with the ball in his hands much, and to me he doesn’t really project to be a wing stopper against the league’s best oversized scorers.

Clingan is apparently Atlanta’s target if it trades down, but with the Rockets open for business with the No. 3 pick and interest in the UConn giant building, the Hawks might simply decide to take him at No. 1. Atlanta has had a very bad defense since drafting Trae Young, and Clingan would be a plug-and-play fit as a rim protector. Clingan is one of the most productive players in this class in terms of all-in-one stats like BPM, and he was the key piece in helping the UConn Huskies win back-to-back national championships. Clingan going No. 1 just seems more believable to me, especially with the Hawks owing their 2025 and 2027 unprotected first round draft picks to the Spurs.

I’m on the record saying I’d take Sarr at No. 1 as Atlanta, because he’s a more athletic play finisher for Young and a more versatile defender. Sarr to Washington at No. 2 seems like the draft’s biggest lock right now, but you never know. Is there another player in the mix for Atlanta? Maybe Matas Buzelis? Who knows. The Hawks’ decision at No. 1 will have a cascading effect on the rest of the order.

The Spurs are the biggest wildcard in the 2024 NBA Draft

The Spurs own the No. 4 and No. 8 overall picks in the draft. They’ve been connected to six players at various points in the last two weeks: Risacher, Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle, Tidjane Salaun, Devin Carter, and Dalton Knecht.

The Spurs can trade up to No. 1 if they want to. San Antonio owns Atlanta’s unprotected 2025 and 2027 first round picks from the Dejounte Murray trade a few years back. If the Spurs really want Risacher, or even Sarr or Clingan, they can put together a package of current and future picks that would be highly beneficial for Atlanta. At the same time, the Spurs can also just keep Atlanta’s future picks and wait to see how the board breaks.

In this mock draft, Risacher falls to the Spurs at No. 4, and that feels like the most case scenario for San Antonio. If Risacher goes No. 1, I’d project San Antonio to take Stephon Castle with this pick. Castle is a fierce defender who plays physically at both ends of the floor but struggles to shoot from the outside. The Spurs could put a talented perimeter defender around Victor Wembanyama, and still add a point guard or shooting (or both) at No. 8.

The Rockets seem desperate to make a trade

Houston has the No. 3 pick, and we know they want to win now. I’m having trouble understanding what Houston was thinking by making that trade with the Nets on Tuesday night — Brooklyn’s 2025 and 2026 picks are valuable! Is 36-year-old Kevin Durant really making the Rockets a title contender? What if the Suns still won’t trade him? Regardless, the trade with the Nets makes it even more likely that Houston is involved in a draft day deal.

I love the fit for Sheppard in Houston if the Rockets stay at No. 3. If Risacher goes No. 1 and Sarr goes No. 2, it’s likely there are going to be teams calling Houston about acquiring the third pick in an effort to select Clingan. The Memphis Grizzlies and Chicago Bulls are reportedly interested, and more teams could join them.

NBA Draft: Date, start time, TV, and more for 2024

Round 1: Wednesday, June 26 | 8:00 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN/ESPN+

Round 2: Thursday, June 27 | 4:00 p.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+