Comparison of RNN-LSTM, TFDF and stacking model approach for weather forecasting in Bangladesh using historical data from 1963 to 2022

by Md. Mahmudul Hasan, Md. Jahid Hasan, Parisha Binte Rahman

Forecasting the weather in an area characterized by erratic weather patterns and unpredictable climate change is a challenging endeavour. The weather is classified as a non-linear system since it is influenced by various factors that contribute to climate change, such as humidity, average temperature, sea level pressure, and rainfall. A reliable forecasting system is crucial in several industries, including transportation, agriculture, tourism, & development. This study showcases the effectiveness of data mining, meteorological analysis, and machine learning techniques such as RNN-LSTM, TensorFlow Decision Forest (TFDF), and model stacking (including ElasticNet, GradientBoost, KRR, and Lasso) in improving the precision and dependability of weather forecasting. The stacking model strategy entails aggregating multiple base models into a meta-model to address issues of overfitting and underfitting, hence improving the accuracy of the prediction model. To carry out the study, a comprehensive 60-year meteorological record from Bangladesh was gathered, encompassing data on rainfall, humidity, average temperature, and sea level pressure. The results of this study suggest that the stacking average model outperforms the TFDF and RNN-LSTM models in predicting average temperature. The stacking average model achieves an RMSLE of 1.3002, which is a 10.906% improvement compared to the TFDF model. It is worth noting that the TFDF model had previously outperformed the RNN-LSTM model. The performance of the individual stacking model is not as impressive as that of the average model, with the validation results being better in TFDF.