Massive Asteroid Could Hit the Moon, Here's How It Would Impact Earth

There's the good (Earth is no longer at risk of a direct hit from an asteroid dubbed 2024 YR4); the bad (shrapnel could cause extensive damage to orbiting satellites); and the ugly (odds of the asteroid hitting the moon have now increased).

A Cornel University study submitted to the American Astronomy Society Journals concludes that, while Earth is no longer in danger of a direct asteroid hit, odds of the asteroid hitting the moon have increased -- from 3.8 percent to 4.3 percent. 

If those odds play out, NewScientist reports that a direct impact could "shower Earth with a cloud of satellite-destroying shrapnel." The study concluded that, if the asteroid hits the moon, the orbiting satellites could suffer decades worth of damage in a matter of just a few days.

Dr. Paul Wiegert, a professor of astronomy at the University of Western Ontario who spearheaded the study, told NewScientist that the study concluded the asteroid could hit the moon at a whopping 29,000 miles per hour. The impact would then create a blast crater just over a half-mile wide, which would make it the largest lunar impact in the last 5,000 years.

YR4, an asteroid that's the size of a building, was first discovered in December 2024. Astronomers initially predicted the asteroid would hit Earth on Dec. 23, 2032, and it would have enough power decimate an entire city.

But astronomers now say that that science is telling them the asteroid will most likely miss Earth. But our planet is not exactly out of the woods. Astronomers say that, if the asteroid hits the moon, the planet's gravity would siphon upwards of 10 percent of the debris back down to Earth.

“Intuitively, the Earth is actually quite a small target when seen from the moon, and so your intuition is that not very much material would actually hit the Earth," the astronomy professor Wiegert told NewScientist, "but it turns out that the Earth’s gravity can focus that material under certain conditions."

Perhaps a problem to worry about seven years from now.