Trade Profile: Edward Cabrera, RHP

Edward Cabrera, RHP

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 27 (04/13/1998)

2025 Traditional Stats: 16 G (16 GS), 82 1/3 IP, 3.61 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 3-4, 86 SO, 30 BB
2025 Advanced Stats: 131 ERA+, 24.8 K%, 8.6 BB%, 3.86 xERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 1.8 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR

Rundown

Edward Cabrera, 27, was a consensus top-100 prospect just three years ago, but recurring injuries caused him to settle into more of a middle-of-the-rotation role in the Marlins’ staff. Even so, his value has continued to fluctuate since he graduated from the prospect lists.

Cabrera flashed superstar-esque potential in 2022 but posted a concerning 11.3% walk rate and battled multiple injuries that limited him to just 14 starts. He also benefited from some clear good fortune, as his 4.59 FIP and .207 BABIP were suspect, especially for a sinkerballer, and pointed to eventual regression.

2023 and 2024 were more of the same for the Dominican right-hander. He unsurprisingly regressed to the mean with ERAs of 4.24 and 4.95, respectively. A few injuries limited him to 40 starts and just under 200 innings across the two seasons, but a lack of effectiveness also played a role. He averaged only 3.5 innings per outing in 2023 but did reach 4.39 in 2024.

Over those two years, control issues were the main culprit behind Cabrera’s middling results. He walked 13.4% of batters, and his fastball was neither reliable nor overpowering, especially in 2024. With Miami for the most part dealing with a pitching surplus, it became hard to justify sending him out every fifth day, given the walk rate.

Edward Cabrera, Disgusting 96mph Changeup. ???? pic.twitter.com/2ha1hTX8lJ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 13, 2025

Cabrera’s sinker/fastball has always been his calling card, but poor control has forced him to rely more on offspeed and breaking pitches. In 2025, he’s thrown his fastball just 36% of the time. His most-used secondary weapon is his changeup, a pitch that is deceptive with late movement and most effective against left-handers. He often pairs his changeup with his four-seamer against lefties while he uses a sinker-slider combo against righties. He also mixes in a hard curveball against both sides, which, when on, can also be his best secondary pitch. The curve has been especially effective for him in 2025, holding batters to just a .129 average.

Overall, in 2025, Cabrera has pitched well. He owns a 3.61 ERA with 86 strikeouts across 82 1/3 innings, but the bigger story is that he’s lowered his walk rate to a more manageable 8.6%, placing him in the 45th percentile (per Baseball Savant). He’s throwing strikes early in counts, and while he’s not close to pinpoint command, he’s maintained fringe-average command and also reached average control.

Since the start of June, Cabrera has posted a 2.95 ERA and looked spectacular. If the Marlins decide to move him now, it would be a clear sell-high opportunity. While there was concern about a possible elbow injury as recently as July 12, he’s expected to start against the Padres on Tuesday, July 22. No structural damage was found on an MRI after he exited his start before the All-Star break with elbow fatigue.

At 27, his fastball still has plenty of life, and his stuff has been electric. With Miami likely to remain out of contention for the next half-decade, they might have a full-on fire sale, which could potentially include Cabrera. However, there’s no guarantee Cabrera will be part of the teardown, as he’ll remain inexpensive for at least the next couple of years and won’tbe a free agent until after the 2029 season.

Package

Assuming the Mets’ top five prospects – from top prospect Jett Williams to Brandon Sproat – are off-limits, the list of high-caliber pitchers on the trade market narrows significantly. Cabrera is likely one of the best starters available and will command a hefty price. Even though the Marlins will be out of contention, they’ve previously traded their major leaguers for young players with MLB experience. Last year, that included Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers from the Orioles (in the Trevor Rogers trade), Agustín Ramírez from the Yankees (for Jazz Chisholm Jr.), and Adam Mazur and Graham Pauley from the Padres (in the Tanner Scott deal).

Last year, Miami didn’t acquire a significant amount of high-level young players, except 19-year-old Starlyn Caba, who they got from the Phillies in the Jesús Luzardo trade.

It’ll be tough for New York to assemble a trade package for a valuable chip like Cabrera without involving their top five prospects. Theoretically, any of the Mets’ top five guys could individually get a deal done – except maybe Brandon Sproat, whose value has dipped significantly. This would be a near-blockbuster trade, but the Mets might still have enough depth to avoid parting with their highest-level prospects. That raises the question of whether two or three mid-tier prospects are more valuable than one top-tier talent.

With all of that being said:

Proposed Deal:

Mets Receive:

• RHP Edward Cabrera

Marlins Receive:

• CF Drew Gilbert (MMO No. 9 prospect)
• RHP Jack Wenninger (MMO No. 11 prospect)
• RHP Jose Guevara (MMO No. 46 prospect)

Recommendation

It’s no surprise David Stearns is at least intrigued by this young righty. For the Mets, the key question is how much prospect capital they’re willing to part with. Parting with three prospects (or one elite prospect) who could impact the Mets by 2026 would be significant, but perhaps reasonable for a potential top-of-the-rotation arm.

It would be shocking if the Mets don’t add some rotational depth at this year’s Trade Deadline, but ultimately, it’s up to Stearns to decide which specific pitcher is the best fit for New York. Though Cabrera has shown solid short-term results, he remains more of a project than a true top-of-the-rotation arm. The bigger appeal is the long-term team control, which could pay huge dividends down the line. At 27 and in his prime, he won’t reach free agency for another five years and hasn’t even entered salary arbitration yet.

However, that doesn’t mean Cabrera wouldn’t make a real impact on the current Mets roster. He’d be a valuable addition to a rotation that could use extra stability during a potential playoff push.

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