Patriots Projected For Major Leap In Win Column This Season
Coming off consecutive 4-13 campaigns, the New England Patriots are generating buzz entering the 2025 season.
The Athletic’s Austin Mock calculated projections and playoff odds for each team as the preseason concludes. He has New England doubling last year’s win total with 8.4 projected victories.
Mock’s model gives the Patriots a 39.1 percent chance to make the playoffs, the ninth-highest probability among AFC teams. Their odds of winning the Super Bowl are a more modest 0.8 percent.
The NFL’s easiest schedule, according to Mock’s projections, gives the Patriots a higher win projection than the Miami Dolphins (8.0) and New York Jets (6.2). Mike Vrabel’s arrival inspires confidence that they’ll take advantage of the favorable slate.
“Vrabel has a proven track record, and when you combine that with a full NFL offseason for up-and-coming QB Drake Maye and some major offseason investments upgrading the roster, the Patriots could turn things around quickly,” Mock wrote.
Sportsbooks seem to concur with Mock’s baseline. Bettors can wager New England exceeding 7.5 wins for -150 on FanDuel, and the over for 8.5 is available at +115.
That may seem like a steep bar for a team that finished last in the division in 2024, but the Patriots opened as favorites to win 11 of their 17 games. Only two of their nine home opponents (Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills) finished over .500 last season.
New England begins the regular season by hosting the Las Vegas Raiders on Sept. 7.