How likely are Liverpool to finish in Champions League top 8 after impressive win against Inter?

For all the difficulties they’ve endured this season, Liverpool are well in contention to progress directly to the Champions League round of 16 and bypass the banana skin of the knockout play-offs in February.

A richly deserved 1-0 victory away to Inter Milan on Tuesday – settled by a disputed late penalty – took the Reds onto 12 points, with only goals scored keeping them out of the current top eight, the threshold for advancing straight to the last 16.

There are still two more matches to navigate before the end of the league phase, with Arne Slot’s team facing a tough trip to Marseille in January and concluding with a home match against Qarabag, but at least they can go into those games with confidence of finishing eighth or higher.

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How many more points do Liverpool need to progress in Champions League?

Liverpool’s win at the San Siro effectively eliminated any lingering worries of missing out on the knockout rounds altogether, with only three teams below the cutoff point of 24th place still able to match the Reds’ points tally, and none capable of exceeding it.

The English champions therefore know that even one more point from their final two games will ensure some form of progression from the league phase, and it’s worth remembering that Paris Saint-Germain had to go through the knockout play-offs on their way to winning the trophy last season.

However, the value of advancing straight to the round of 16 would be massive. Not only would the Reds avoid the bear pit of a two-legged tie against a tough opponent such as Napoli (who they’d have a 50-50 chance of facing if the table were to finish as it current stands), they’d also swerve further fixture congestion in February in between two midweek Premier League rounds and the usual weekend fare.

Liverpool’s remaining Champions League fixtures

Liverpool’s next Champions League tie takes them to Marseille on 21 January, with the Ligue 1 side winning and losing three games each in the tournament so far and firing themselves back into contention with consecutive victories.

One of those was at home to an English side (Newcastle last month), and the Stade Velodrome is renowned as an intimidating place for opposition teams to visit, so the Merseysiders can’t say they haven’t been forewarned.

A draw in that game wouldn’t be terrible, but having conquered the San Siro and beaten Real Madrid, the Reds shouldn’t fear travelling to face Roberto De Zerbi’s side.

Liverpool are at home to Qarabag a week later, and with all due respect to the team from Azerbaijan – who began with two straight wins but have picked up only one point since – it’s an ideal fixture for us to have if we still need a positive result to ensure a top-eight finish.

Slot’s side have work to do if they’re to qualify directly for the round of 16, but their current position and remaining matches give them a very strong chance of doing so.

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