Spain Kickstarts The Electoral Race Amid Fracturing Of The Right

By Inés Fernández-Pontes

(EurActiv) -- Spain’s centre-right has triggered a wave of snap regional elections, accelerating the country’s political timetable and testing the ground ahead of the 2027 general election.

These upcoming ballots will test both whether the Popular Party (PP) can govern without the far-right Vox, whose relations have deteriorated over ideological discrepancies, and show how much ground the socialists are losing after the party is engulfed in scandals.

A PP-Vox government ruled the Spanish regions of Aragón, Extremadura, Valencia, Castilla y León, and Murcia until Vox withdrew from the coalitions in 2024 due to major disagreements over migration policy.

The eastern region of Extremadura will be the first to vote on Sunday, followed by Aragón. Both are regions where the PP called early elections, alleging that budget negotiations with the far-right Vox party had failed.

The PP’s move has taken many by surprise, but the party is still hoping to secure an absolute majority despite the far-right’s meteoric rise in the polls.

Extremadura in focus

After decades of Socialist rule in Extremadura, largely under the leadership of party heavyweight Juan Carlos Rodríguez Ibarra, the PP rose to power with Vox’s support in 2023.

Recently, new anti-graft operations and sexual harassment scandals have battered an already damaged Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), which is facing mounting court cases and high-profile investigations into Pedro Sánchez’s inner circle, former cabinet members, and senior party officials.

All eyes are now on the largely rural Extremadura region, as local reports predict a disastrous electoral outcome for the PSOE, creating a fresh battleground for right-wing forces.

Tense electoral battle

Pre-election polls suggest that the PP President of Extremadura, María Guardiola, could secure an absolute majority in the regional parliament with 42.9% of the vote.

Meanwhile, the Socialists, led by Miguel Ángel Gallardo, could secure 29.4% of the vote, Vox 13.5%, and the far-left Unidas por Extremadura, 8.6%.

It’s a tough race for the Socialists. Gallardo will stand trial next year along with Sánchez’s brother, David, for alleged malfeasance and influence peddling. He’s accused of creating an “ad hoc” position in the Badajoz Provincial Council for the prime minister’s brother. The prime minister has defended his brother’s innocence, and Gallardo has denied any wrongdoing.

Still, Juan Ramón Ferreira, PSOE Extremadura’s ideas and programmes secretary, said that despite predictions of a landslide victory for the PP, the large number of undecided voters not reflected in recent polls may favour the Socialists.

“If we have a good last-minute turnout, it is likely that we may have a surprise,” he told Euractiv.

Meanwhile, personal attacks between Guardiola and Vox’s national leader Santiago Abascal have increased over the past months, with the PP leader repeatedly accusing Vox of populism, and its leader of sexism. Abascal shot back at Guardiola, calling her a “feminazi.”

Vox didn’t reply to Euractiv’s request for comments at the time of publication.

A risky strategy?

Francisco Haz, a political scientist and sociologist at the University of Santiago de Compostela, told Euractiv that when Spanish parties trigger early elections, it is either to avoid a crisis or to form a single-party government, when voting trends are positive.

“Extremadura is a clear example of the latter,” he said, adding that PP could additionally benefit from the transfer of votes from the PSOE’s centre left.

But, either through a coalition or abstention, PP would need Vox to form a government, giving Abascal’s party significant leverage over the government’s decisions. Haz also said it’s too early to count on the PSOE’s collapse.

“On several occasions, including in the 2023 elections, many predicted the end of Sánchez’s political career,” he said, “and then it has not happened. He is a very resilient leader.”

Even if the Socialists might show signs of wear and tear and lose votes, Haz warned, as long as Sánchez remains in power, the party will not go anywhere.

“After him, that is another matter entirely.”