Are US Small Business Owners Right To Be Optimistic About Sales Growth in 2026?
According to the most recent data put forth by Comerica in its 2026 Small Business Pulse Index, U.S. small business owners are “squarely optimistic” about their business prospects in the year ahead, with four-fifths (80%) suggesting that they are “confident in their future success.” Only a slightly smaller cohort of respondents (79%) indicated that they were expecting sales growth in 2026.
“Small businesses have navigated a year filled with challenges, from tariffs and inflation to a prolonged government shutdown – yet their optimism remains unwavering,” Larry Franco, Comerica Bank EVP and National Director of Retail & Small Business Banking, said.
“This spirit speaks volumes about the adaptability and determination of America’s entrepreneurs as they prepare for growth in 2026,” he added.
Despite the index being registered at 55.5 points, down from 56 points in Q3 2025, this was only a marginal downturn and a general sense of optimism was the message delivered by Comerica. The federal government shutdown affected about one-third of small businesses, with the remainder noting that they had been unaffected by the event.
Despite Optimism Among Small Business Owners, Inflation and Tariff Concerns Persist
Among the study’s further findings:
- Speaking of the aforementioned confidence, the South was the region playing host to the most optimistic business owners (83% indicated confidence for 2026), and tech firms (93%), health care enterprises (90%), and businesses with 10 or more employees (88%) exhibited notable levels of confidence for the year-ahead period. Housing and real estate firms, by contrast, came in at the lowest confidence level (67%).
- Of the 79% of those polled who envisioned sales growth next year, the average projected level of growth was pegged at nearly 8% (7.9% to be precise). Tech and construction firms were most confident of their continued success, while sole proprietorships and retailers showed more caution as to next year’s promise.
- Of the top three concerns brought forth by American small business owners, inflation topped the list (23%), with tariffs taking the No. 2 position on the podium (14%). Rounding out the trio was government policies and/or regulations (11%).
- Perhaps unsurprisingly, operational efficiency improvements were cited as the most popular top priority for 2026 (with 48% of respondents saying as much), and nearly half (45%) of tech firms laid out plans to integrate new technologies.
“Policy shifts, from tariffs to interest rate cuts, are reshaping how small businesses operate. While trade challenges have driven rising costs and supply chain disruptions, many owners are responding with creativity and leveraging lower borrowing costs to invest and innovate, signaling a proactive approach to growth in 2026,” Franco concluded.