Staggering revenue losses projected for state due to Trump's crackdown: study

With college students returning to class after the New Year, international students face heightened uncertainty in Virginia, as ongoing federal actions — including visa bans and disruptions to application processing — have led to a projected $23 million revenue loss for the commonwealth compared to last fall.

Virginia received $893.5 million from more than 23,000 international students at its colleges and universities from 2024 to 2025, according to the Association of International Educators (NAFSA).

The organization’s analysis, conducted by JB International, warns that restrictive federal policy changes, such new four-year caps on visa validity, may deter international students. Rachel Banks, director of public policy for NAFSA, noted that in response, schools are adapting by allowing extended deferrals or online starts to maintain international student engagement and mitigate potential enrollment losses.

“I think schools are really trying to be flexible with all the uncertainty,” said Banks, adding that the organization is actively advocating for more welcoming policies and improved visa processing.

Banks also pointed out that few institutions are immune to the changes. Smaller towns with universities in Lexington and Harrisonburg, for example, are particularly vulnerable to enrollment changes, as their economies are tied to university populations and spending. Lexington is home to the Virginia Military Institute while Harrisonburg hosts James Madison University, both public institutions.

Surprisingly, Banks said community colleges are also in the cross-hairs of declining enrollment, with international students contributing over $2 billion nationally.

There is growing global competition for international students, Banks said, stressing that without proactive, student-friendly policies, U.S. institutions of higher learning will struggle to remain competitive, risking program cuts and decreased class enrollments that could impact financial stability.

“… If we continue to find ourselves in the situation where international students are not wanting to come here anymore, and they’re choosing to either stay home or go to another international destination … we need to be out there if we want to have any chance of trying to turn the ship around,” Banks said.

Shortly after speaking with the Mercury, in a statement NAFSA expressed concern about the Trump administration expanding the international travel ban from 19 to 39 countries, effective Jan. 1, 2026. The organization noted that Nigeria, a key source of students, is among them.

Existing visa holders are exempted.

“Blanket travel bans based on entire nationalities or visa categories do not make the United States safer. In fact, they do the opposite. They make us weaker,” NAFSA said in a statement.

Additionally, NAFSA cautioned that expanding the travel ban undermines U.S. global engagement, security, innovation, and competitiveness, and urged policymakers to reverse the decision to protect the national interest.

International student enrollment in Virginia

On Dec. 1, State Council of Higher Education for Virginia Executive Director A. Scott Fleming said overall enrollment at Virginia colleges remains steady, but graduate international student numbers declined from fall 2024 to fall 2025. He noted this is significant because graduate students often pay full tuition and provide economic benefits to schools.

“International students tend to pay full tuition; they bring with them considerable additional economic resources when they enter the commonwealth to study, and so the reduction and decline of international student enrollment will absolutely have an impact on some of our public four-year institutions,” Fleming said.

Some institutions, especially in Northern Virginia, had larger-than-average declines, Fleming told a Senate Finance and Appropriations subcommittee on Dec. 1 — over 13% in some cases.

On a more positive note, Fleming said undergraduate international student enrollment has increased year over year, which was unexpected based on past data.

Fleming did not specify the causes of these trends, but emphasized the need for the state and institutions to address the resulting financial and operational challenges ahead of the upcoming General Assembly Session.

He also said the state must continue supporting public institutions to help keep tuition affordable, and suggested enhancing need-based financial aid and the Tuition Assistance Grant program.

This story was published in partnership with Creative Commons.

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