Nearly 4 Feet of Snow Forecasted to Fall Across California Ski Resorts
High-Level Summary
A brief lull on Friday gives way to a stronger, longer-duration Sierra storm that ramps up late Friday night and runs through early Monday, with snow levels starting high and then dropping steadily into Sunday and Monday. Saturday favors higher-elevation terrain, but snow will be dense, and winds will be strong on exposed ridges. The best combination of depth and quality lines up Sunday into Monday as colder air lowers snow levels, snow ratios improve into more skiable packed powder, and totals stack up across the west slope and the Tahoe Crest. Mammoth stays in the mix throughout thanks to consistently colder temperatures and better snow quality.
Notable Snowfall Totals
Highest total snowfall ranges for the full forecast window (through Wednesday, January 7, 2025):
- Sugar Bowl: 28 to 44 inches
- Kirkwood: 27 to 42 inches
- Palisades Tahoe: 25 to 39 inches
- Mammoth: 22 to 34 inches
- Northstar: 15 to 24 inches
- Mt. Rose: 10 to 16 inches
- Heavenly: 8 to 13 inches
Key Points
Good
A long-duration storm window late Friday night through early Monday supports deep totals, and snow levels trend downward through the weekend, improving coverage and reducing rain risk at mid-mountain. Snow quality also improves with time, shifting from heavier snowfall early to more skiable, colder snow Sunday into Monday, especially at higher elevations.
Bad
The storm opens warm with high snow levels and low snow ratios, so Saturday turns can be dense, and lower elevations can flirt with wet snow near the base at some Tahoe resorts. Strong southwest winds, especially on exposed ridgelines, may impact lift operations and can rough up snow surfaces through drifting and scouring.
Wildcards
Snow levels can fluctuate during heavier precipitation bursts, and that matters a lot for base areas near the mid six thousands. Wind intensity and exact timing of the colder push will determine whether Sunday skis as protected powder or more wind-affected chalk. A smaller midweek system looks possible, but totals and timing remain lower-confidence compared to the main weekend storm.
Daily Forecast
Saturday (01/03)
Saturday is about high-elevation survival skiing and storm riding, not perfect powder. Best chase totals (Friday night plus Saturday daytime) favor Kirkwood with 7 to 11 inches, Mammoth with 7 to 10 inches, and Sugar Bowl with 6 to 10 inches. Snow will be dense at Tahoe early, so prioritize higher lifts and sheltered aspects; Mammoth offers more consistently cold temps and more moderate-density snow for better ski feel.
Sunday (01/04)
Sunday is the main chase day. Combined snowfall (Saturday night plus Sunday daytime) stacks up to 12 to 19 inches at Sugar Bowl, 11 to 17 inches at Palisades Tahoe, and 10 to 16 inches at Kirkwood, with 9 to 14 inches at Mammoth. Snow quality improves compared to Saturday, but expect wind-affected conditions on exposed ridges. For the best overall skiing, lean toward terrain with wind shelter and elevations solidly above the falling snow levels.
Monday (01/05)
Monday stays excellent, especially where Sunday delivered deep coverage and colder temps preserve quality. New snow (Sunday night plus Monday daytime) adds 7 to 12 inches at Kirkwood, 6 to 11 inches at Sugar Bowl, and 5 to 10 inches at Palisades Tahoe, with 6 to 10 inches at Mammoth. Winds ease compared to the weekend peak in many spots, which helps snow ski smoother and more uniformly.
Tuesday (01/06)
Tuesday is a down day for chasing, but ski areas could pick up 2-8" of additional snow.
Forecast Details
The main event arrives late Friday night with a warm initial push, bringing higher snow levels early and denser snow ratios. Through Saturday, southwest flow favors consistent snowfall at higher elevations, but exposed ridgelines will be hammered by strong winds, so expect wind loading in leeward zones and scoured surfaces in the most exposed alpine terrain. As colder air filters in, snow levels trend down through Saturday night and Sunday, improving coverage at mid-mountain and increasing snow quality into more skiable packed powder.
Standout totals concentrate on the west slope and favored Tahoe terrain: Sugar Bowl is the top call at 28 to 44 inches, with Kirkwood close behind at 27 to 42 inches, and Palisades Tahoe at 25 to 39 inches for the full window. Mammoth is a quality play with 22 to 34 inches, generally colder temperatures, and periods of higher snow ratios that support lighter turns than Tahoe during the warmer phases. Expect the best snow feel Sunday into Monday as temperatures cool and snow ratios trend upward, while winds gradually become less disruptive.
Extended Outlook
After the midweek chance for light additional snow, the broader pattern favors a colder lean near the West Coast with less reliable precipitation later in the outlook window, suggesting a potential shift toward drier stretches after the active early period.