Pac-12 MBB power rankings: Gonzaga’s resume concerns are not of its doing (blame the non-conference opponents)
Welcome to the latest installment of the Hotline’s Pac-12 men’s basketball power rankings, our weekly assessment of a conference that doesn’t exist (yet) using results, analytics and a dash of common sense. The power rankings will be published each Monday through the end of the regular season. Here is last week’s edition.
Gonzaga’s non-conference schedule looked stout when it became official in early September and again when the Zags took the court for the first time two months later.
It featured nine teams from power conferences, all with designs on March Madness bids, and appeared to possess enough juice to propel the Zags into position for a high seed if they handled their business to the expected standard.
But over the first half of the season, Gonzaga’s opponents from the Big Ten, Big East, Big 12 and SEC have done Mark Few and Co. no favors.
The Bulldogs beat eight of the nine — and did so handily, in fact — with a lopsided loss to Michigan as the only blemish.
But other than the second-ranked Wolverines and No. 14 Alabama, the opposition collectively has performed far below expectations. As a result, the Zags appear more vulnerable to a lower seed in the NCAA Tournament than otherwise would have been expected considering their 8-1 record against the group.
How so?
Were the 68-team field selected today, Kentucky, which was No. 9 in the AP preseason poll but lost to the Zags by 35 points, likely would be seeded in the No. 7-8 range.
UCLA, which is without a signature win, resembles a double-digit seed.
Oklahoma and Creighton would be squarely on the bubble.
The same goes for Arizona State.
Oregon? Not a chance.
Maryland? A train wreck.
All in all, just two of Gonzaga’s nine power conference opponents, Michigan and Alabama, have performed as well as expected by fans and media — and by the Zags, who are heavily reliant on their non-conference schedule because of the (mostly) second-tier competition in the West Coast Conference.
(To be clear, we’re including the Big East in the group of power conferences given that its membership has won six of the past 15 national titles and made nine Final Four appearances in that span.)
At this point, Gonzaga’s non-conference schedule ranks 23rd nationally in the closely-watched KenPom.com ratings and No. 29 in the NET version. Only five of the nine games qualify as Quadrant I results.
Put another way: The Zags’ non-conference schedule stands as one of the strongest in the country but, at the same time, isn’t as strong as they had hoped.
The NCAA Tournament selection committee has, in past years, taken scheduling intent into account when assessing at-large teams and seeding the field. From that standpoint, Gonzaga did everything right when it built the lineup of 13 non-conference opponents.
But at the season’s midway point, with Selection Sunday a mere 10 weeks away, the Zags need many of their November and December victims to perform better than they have.
To the power rankings …
(Results and NET rankings through Sunday)
1. Gonzaga (16-1)
Result: won at San Diego 99-93, beat Seattle 80-72 (OT) and LMU 82-47NET ranking: No. 4Comment: If you’re curious about the strength of the WCC and how it might impact Gonzaga’s resume, consider: The Zags have three Quadrant I games remaining in the regular season based on the current NET rankings: The two duels with No. 23 Saint Mary’s and the trip to No. 62 Santa Clara. (The Broncos don’t qualify as a Quad I opponent for Gonzaga when the game is in Spokane.) (Previous: 1)
2. San Diego State (9-4)
Result: won at San Jose State 81-68, beat Boise State 110-107 (3OT)NET ranking: No. 69Comment: The cardiac event-inducing victory over Boise State is on the short list of the best games of the season, with each team coming back from the brink at various points. The quality of play over 55 minutes (solid shooting percentages, limited fouls and turnovers) made it that much better. (Previous: 2)
3. Utah State (12-1)
Result: won at Fresno State 72-63, beat San Jose State 96-78NET ranking: No. 20Comment: Were the NCAA field selected today, the Aggies likely would be two or three seed lines lower than their No. 20 NET ranking suggests. They have no Quadrant I results, nine Quad III/IV victories and a modest non-conference schedule strength. (Previous: 3)
4. Boise State (9-5)
Result: beat New Mexico 62-53, lost at San Diego State 110-107 (3OT)NET ranking: No. 45Comment: How rapidly will the Broncos and Aztecs recover (physically and emotionally) from the triple-overtime thriller? At least Boise State is home this week, with Grand Canyon visiting on Wednesday and Utah State on Saturday. SDSU plays in Reno on Tuesday which, frankly, feels like a loss under the circumstances. (Previous: 5)
5. Colorado State (10-4)
Result: lost to Nevada 75-62, won at Grand Canyon 70-60NET ranking: No. 79Comment: The win at Grand Canyon was critical on two fronts: It enabled the Rams to avoid an 0-3 start in Mountain West play and positioned them for a January mini-surge given the manageable upcoming schedule. (Previous: 4)
6. Washington State (8-9)
Result: lost at Seattle 69-55, beat LMU 78-76 and Oregon State 81-67NET ranking: No. 156Comment: We had major doubts about the trajectory of WSU’s season while watching the five-game losing streak unfold in the first half of December. But credit coach David Riley for salvaging the operation just in time for a brutal three-game stretch against Saint Mary’s (road), Gonzaga (home) and San Francisco (road). (Previous: 7)
7. Oregon State (8-9)
Result: beat San Francisco 70-62, lost at Pacific 84-53 and Washington State 81-67NET ranking: No. 224Comment: Was the 20-win season in 2024-25 a sign of permanent improvement or mere mirage? Only the truest of believers thought coach Wayne Tinkle was building something sustainable in the Beavers’ new existence. The Hotline never veered from our deeply skeptical view. (Previous: 6)
8. Texas State (9-7)
Result: lost at Troy 100-80, won at UL Monroe 84-79NET ranking: No. 275Comment: That NET ranking is bad enough to get the Bobcats booted from the Pac-12 before they even begin competing in the rebuilt league. We’re joking, of course. But having two teams in the 200s (Texas State and Oregon State) would be highly problematic for NCAA Tournament positioning. (Previous: 8)
9. Fresno State (6-8)
Result: lost to Utah State 72-63 and Nevada 66-65NET ranking: No. 167Comment: The Bulldogs have lost to South Carolina Upstate, UC San Diego, Cal State Bakersfield and Cal State Northridge but don’t have the worst resume (based on the NET rankings) of the nine teams assessed here. Ponder that for a minute, folks. (Previous: 9)
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