2026 is set to be a pivotal year for Apple — one that could shape CEO Tim Cook's legacy

• Tim Cook's 15-year tenure as Apple CEO has been marked by political balancing acts and swings in innovation.
• In 2026, he's grappling with trade policy changes and pressure to keep Apple's competitive edge.
• Tech analysts and insiders say his last chapter could be shaped by succession planning and AI.

Tim Cook has built a reputation as a steady stalwart of Apple during his nearly 15-year tenure as CEO. His next — and potentially final — chapter at the tech giant could be his most defining yet.

This year is shaping up to be a big one for Apple and the 65-year-old CEO, whose eventual retirement is a topic of much speculation in the tech industry. His company is planning a long-delayed update to its virtual assistant, Siri, to solidify its standing in artificial intelligence, and tech analysts expect the next major iPhone innovation to be a highly anticipated foldable model.

Cook took over for Apple's late founder Steve Jobs in 2011. Since then, he has led the company through innovative product launches, turbulent times, and financial highs.

Under Cook's leadership, Apple has woven together an ecosystem of interconnected products and services that shaped how consumers interact with the company. The iPhone may be its cash cow, but its services business — which Cook expanded to include AppleTV, Apple Fitness+, and Apple Music — and smart accessories like the Apple Watch help keep the company relevant.

"Tim Cook's greatest accomplishments are the financial evolution of the company, the integration of Apple silicon, and maintaining the iPhone's dominant walled garden ecosystem," Morningstar analyst William Kerwin told Business Insider.

Still, Cook's greatest challenges may lie ahead as he navigates political changes, greater competition from tech rivals, and an AI arms race that could leave Apple behind.

Cook is walking a 'political tightrope'

After a turbulent 2025, Cook is navigating the aftershocks of major changes to US policies, Apple's supply chain, and the global smartphone market landscape.

The year 2025 was marked by a new high for Apple's stock as the company reached a $4 trillion market capitalization for the first time in October.

However, it also faced economic headwinds in the form of tariffs and stiff competition abroad.

China remains a challenge for Apple, with revenue in the region down 4% in its most recent quarter, though Cook said on the October earnings call that he expects the new iPhone 17 lineup to drive a return to growth in the region. Meanwhile, Chinese tech companies such as Xiaomi and Huawei are gaining popularity with local smartphone users.

A major America-first shift in trade policy under President Donald Trump also prompted Apple to rethink its supply chain. It rapidly shifted some iPhones to India last year and pledged to invest hundreds of billions more in the US in the coming years.

Still, China remains a significant manufacturing hub for Apple, and the US-China trade war could continue to impact the company.

"So far, Cook has walked that political tightrope with considerable dexterity, but the high degree of economic policy uncertainty and volatility will require him to continue steering the ship with an even hand," Forrester analyst Dipanjan Chatterjee told Business Insider.

AI isn't going away

One of Cook's biggest challenges ahead will be cementing Apple's positioning in artificial intelligence, an area where the company appears to have fallen behind its rivals, analysts tell Business Insider.

It's not just the launches of Apple's AI platform, Apple Intelligence, that have to be successful. It's also about the way Cook is integrating the technology into Apple's operations.

"AI has redefined what legacy means," Martha Heller, CEO of Heller, a specialized technology executive search firm, told Business Insider.

Ten years ago, "the goal was to leave a solid foundation so the next leader could create change intentionally without chaos," she said.

Now, it's up to leaders to create an AI road map — from the nitty-gritty of products to the mindset of the board — to take a company into the future.

Cook has been praised for his steady leadership, but his strategy will have to be turned up a notch if he doesn't want to be caught flat-footed in the age of rapid change.

Heller said Cook has made "partial progress" in his performance under the new AI-driven standards that CEOs must consider.

"Cook has laid the foundation for Apple's AI future, but the next 12 to 18 months will determine whether reinvention becomes his defining legacy," Heller said.

Of course, while competitors are investing billions into their AI ventures, Apple's more modest approach could pay off in the end, as investors closely scrutinize how much Big Tech companies are spending on AI and the return on investment.

Apple's AI push has so far failed to fuel the iPhone upgrade super cycle that some analysts, like Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives, predicted the iPhone 16 family would bring. The jury is still out on the iPhone 17's overall performance, but Cook said he expected the December quarter would be the "best" yet for iPhone sales.

Like other tech companies, Apple also faces the challenge of holding onto its top talent to drive future innovation. In 2025, it lost several AI researchers who left to pursue opportunities at rival tech companies, such as Meta. The company is also coming up against device competition from its former chief designer, Jony Ive, who is teaming up with OpenAI to create an AI gadget.

Major product launches are a must

With an AI arms race in full swing and competitors releasing innovative takes on the smartphone, such as foldable models, the pressure is on Apple to act faster than it has recently.

"While Cook has kept Apple's growth trajectory moving forward at a steady clip, he has not overseen a step-change innovation that resets Apple's competitive position for the next two decades, as Jobs did with the iPhone," Chatterjee said.

The Vision Pro, released in February 2024, failed to gain traction among the masses at a $3,500 price point and lacked a killer app to differentiate it from other headsets. The long-rumored Apple Car, which held potential to be a tenure-defining product for Cook, is widely believed to be scrapped. However, Apple Watch and AirPods have become essential pieces of tech for many Apple users. In 2020, Apple's former CFO Luca Maestri likened the revenue of the wearables segment to that of a Fortune 140 business.

But with innovations to the iPhone feeling increasingly incremental over the last decade, 2026 could be the year when Apple's much-needed reset finally arrives, as competitors continue to encroach on its competitive edge at the forefront of innovation.

A new and improved Siri is expected to arrive this year, following a few delays. Although Apple hasn't confirmed, supply chain analysts and Bloomberg's Mark Gurman have predicted a foldable iPhone could come as early as this fall.

If so, it would be in line with Apple's "not first, but best" strategy of not being the first to market a product but to try to do it better than its competitors.

Apple needs a solid succession plan

Cook hasn't publicly revealed his succession plan, but that hasn't stopped tech industry watchers from speculating on who will replace him and when. The Financial Times recently reported that Cook has intensified his search for a successor.

Apple did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

The year 2025 brought about meaningful leadership changes at Apple. John Giannandrea was the senior vice president of machine learning and AI strategy at Apple before announcing his plans to retire in the spring of 2026. Cook's longtime No. 2, Jeff Williams, retired last year.

Cook has said in the past that he prefers an internal successor and that he is grooming "several" executives as potential replacements. Bloomberg in October identified John Ternus, Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering, as "the most likely heir apparent."

Whoever ends up stepping in for Cook will be closely examined for their technical background. Unlike Jobs, Cook is famously "not a product guy" — Jobs told biographer Walter Isaacson as much. A candidate from a hardware background, like Ternus, could excite Apple's fan base — and investors.

Finding his replacement will undoubtedly shape Cook's legacy at Apple. He's spent nearly 15 years building it, seeing the company through several wins and missteps.

"Cook's legacy, upon his departure, will be defined by steady and disciplined operational stewardship — proof that a company can be more than just exciting and visionary; it can also be enormously valuable to all its stakeholders," Chatterjee said.