Global Cancer Rates Have Doubled Since 1990, and a New Study Says the World Isn’t Ready

A study that was published in recent weeks has given the world a sobering view of the number of cancer diagnoses that are being made by doctors. Based on its findings, the study also covers how ready medical systems around the world are to cope with the surge in cancer cases that researchers say is on the way.

While the study is highly informative about a very real problem that is affecting a lot of people in tragic ways, it is important for society to consider the findings in the proper context. The data reveals that serious global challenges are likely impending, but progress in cancer prevention and treatment could make a huge difference in countries with access to those treatments. On top of detailing the study's findings, this article will also point to some other factors that should be considered by considering its conclusions when evaluating the study's findings.

New Study Reveals Cancer Cases Have More Than Doubled Since 1990

On October 11th, 2025, The Lancet published the findings of a study on the burden created by global, regional, and national cancer cases, which also forecasted future trends. The researchers behind the study concluded that in 2023, there were 18.5 million cancer cases worldwide, which resulted in 10.4 million deaths. After comparing their findings about the cancer cases in 2023 to the diagnoses from 1990, the study found the numbers have more than doubled, since there has been a 105% increase in new cancer cases. It is important to note that the study's findings didn't include cases of non-melanoma skin cancers.

The Lancet study detailed how researchers came to those numbers about global cancer cases and mortality numbers. "Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs)."

Cancer Study Forecasts a Stark Picture by 2050

In addition to contrasting the number of cancer cases in 2023 to how many diagnoses there were in 1990, The Lancet's study also forecasted how things are likely to change by 2050. "[The researchers forecast] (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally."

The study also explained that the effort to cope with the projected increase in cancer cases by 2050 will require an international effort. “Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.” Unless major changes are made to accomplish the steps that the study projects will be neccesary, the increase in cases will seriously strain medical systems in many parts of the world.

The Lancet's study described how the forecast of cancer cases and deaths in 2050 was reached by the researchers. "To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors."

How Cancer Burden Will Differ Across Regions and Income Levels

In the modern world, people in different regions and countries have very different experiences with medical systems. That is the case because people's access to modern medical advancements varies dramatically based on where they live. A PubMed article covering The Lancet study's findings detailed how this has a huge effect on how likely residents will be to die from cancer in their forecasted 2050 future. “These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90.6%) compared with high-income countries (42.8%).” Limited access to early detection, treatment, and follow-up care can have a huge impact on cancer recovery, according to experts. Those factors can also affect people living in wealthy countries who have limited access to care due to financial or other barriers.

The PubMed article about The Lancet's study also reflected the fact that cancer case rates are also very different in lower-income and middle-income regions when broken down by age. “There were 4.33 million risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023… comprising 41.7% … of all cancer deaths… risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72.3% from 1990 to 2023.”

Why the Global Trend Doesn’t Warrant Panic

While learning about The Lancet study's findings, it is undeniably worrisome to consider the implications of the current and future state of cancer diagnosis around the world. Despite that fact, there are factors to factor in when considering the implications for the world and anyone who is worried about their own health based on the findings.

The first thing to remember is the fact that PubMed's article about the study underlines the fact that risk factors significantly affect the likelihood that people will be diagnosed with cancer. "There were 4·33 million risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% over the same period." Risk factors that increase the likelihood that a person will be diagnosed with cancer include smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, not getting regular exercise, and not having a healthy diet. Therefore, lifestyle changes can mitigate a person's risk of cancer diagnosis, without eliminating it.

Another important factor to consider is that while the study details an increase in global cancer cases and deaths since 1990, an American Cancer Society report released in 2025 found that age-adjusted U.S. cancer mortality has dropped by 34% since 1991. While this may appear to contradict The Lancet’s findings, the two are measuring different things. The American Cancer Society’s data reflects a declining individual risk of dying from cancer in the U.S., driven by improvements in prevention, earlier detection, and more effective treatments. By contrast, The Lancet’s analysis focuses on total worldwide cancer deaths, which have risen as populations grow and age, particularly in regions with limited access to advanced medical care. Taken together, the findings suggest that outcomes have improved for people with access to modern healthcare systems, even as the global cancer burden continues to grow.

Finally, it is important to remember that several factors can change before the study's forecast may become reality. Since scientists are constantly studying cancer, possible advances in prevention, detection, and treatments could dramatically change the forecast. It is also possible that more people worldwide could get access to modern medical advancements in the years to come, which would have a huge effect on the future of cancer deaths and overall survival rates.