Que. lottery winner chose $1K/week for life over $1M payout and even Canada's richest man had thoughts
It’s a problem most of us would surely want to have. You’ve just won the lottery. But you have a decision to make. You can take $1 million right away, or $1,000 every week for as long as you live. Which would you choose?
Brenda Aubin-Vega had to make that choice last year when she won the top prize from Loto-Quebec’s Gagnant à vie (win for life) lottery. The lottery describes its prize as $1,000 a week for the rest of your life. But the small print says you can also walk away with a lump-sum payout of $1 million.
We asked an expert in math and probability to weigh in.
What did Aubin-Vega do?
Aubin-Vega was on a break when she says she went to buy two scratch tickets at a corner store in the Saint-Laurent borough of Montreal where she works. Three piggy bank symbols appeared, indicating a win.
“I couldn’t believe my eyes,” she told CTV News at the time. “I checked my ticket over and over again.” She then called her father with the news — and took the rest of the day off work.
She chose the $1,000-a-week option, and was photographed by the lottery holding aloft a novelty oversized cheque for $1,000. (Presumably her actual payouts would be easier to handle.) Left on the table — for the moment — was the additional $999,000 she could have taken right away.
Canadian 20-year-old lottery winner turns down $1M cash for $1,000 a week for life. pic.twitter.com/635MkBq2fm
— Made In Canada (@MadelnCanada) December 10, 2025
Was it the best choice?
Although the 20-year-old made her decision in July, her move caught the eye of Changpeng Zhao, Canada’s richest man and founder of crypto company Binance, in December. In recent days, the story has gained attention from media in the U.S. and Britain as well.
“She will be better off to accept $1m today, ape bitcoin (or BNB), then spend $1k each week for the rest of her life, with millions left over. Will be clear in a few years. Assume she lives 100 more years, she gets $5m (no inflation). Today: BTC $90k, BNB $865. Let’s see,” he posted on X .
Meanwhile, most commentators on social media also said she didn’t make the best choice. While some pointed out that her young age meant the potential of a lot of weeks ahead, and an eventual payout of perhaps multiple millions, most pointed out that inflation would eat away at the value of that weekly cheque, and that shrewd (or even moderate) investments could deliver more than that in interest and dividends.
Someone even noted that investments by the lotto company (or a third party) was how Aubin-Vega’s future payouts could be funded. And she could have done that herself.
What does an expert say?
Jeffery S. Rosenthal, a professor of statistics at the University of Toronto, says it’s not a simple answer.
“There’s an obvious answer but then there could be twists I guess is how I would put it,” he told National Post.
He noted that the average life expectancy for a woman in Canada is over 80 years, so by simply multiplying out the amount — 52 weeks times 60 years times $1,000 — she would stand to collect about $3.12 million over her lifetime.
“But one issue is it’s generally considered better to get money right away than later,” he added. “For one thing you could invest it, and hopefully your investments would make more money.”
A quick calculation, with a six per cent annual return over 60 years, yields a total of close to $33 million, he said, although that does involve investing the entire sum and never spending any of it.
He continued: “Then there’s the issue that you might not live to be in your 80s, you might die earlier, so there’s no guarantee you’re going to get it.”
What about the psychology of the choice?
“There’s both psychology and lifestyle issues,” he said. “Some people might be thrilled to suddenly have a million dollars. You can go on incredible trips and buy incredible things, whereas getting $1,000 a week is a good thing in the long run but it doesn’t lead to a sudden exciting change in your life.”
The flip side to that, he said, are stories of people who lose their friends after winning a big jackpot. “You can’t trust people anymore because everyone just wants you for your money,” he said.
“And also you might make poor choices, everything from substance abuse to wasting all your money gambling. Some people who win big lottery jackpots end up not being so happy about it, whereas $1,000 a week is not going to do anything crazy for you.”
What would Rosenthal do?
The question gives him pause. “In my case my finances are fine currently, so it’s not like I desperately need the money. So I would just think more in terms of what I could do…” He trailed off. “That’s a tricky one. I never thought about it in personal terms.”
He pondered his employment status, the option of giving something to charity, “the trip of a lifetime,” and his own actuarial tables. “I’m not 20 any more so I have fewer years left to collect that thousand dollars a week.”
He concluded: “To be honest, no one ever asked me that before, and I actually find it kind of an intriguing question to think about. I guess I could see arguments both ways. and I would have to give it a serious think.”
He said most calls from the media come when a lottery jackpot reaches a record high, and journalists want to know what the odds of winning are. Also: “I don’t buy tickets myself.”
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