49ers’ 5 keys to upsetting No. 1 seed Seattle in NFC divisional playoffs

SEATTLE – The smoke literally cleared two weeks ago from Levi’s Stadium’s visitors’ locker room, which the Seattle Seahawks turned into a victory-cigar lounge after a 13-3 win that clinched the NFC playoffs’ No. 1 seed and NFC West title.

The 49ers could do the same tonight with an upset at Lumen Field. However, as one 49ers defender said, “We’re classier than that.”

Beating the Seahawks here, as they did in the season opener, would send the No. 6-seeded 49ers to the NFC Championship Game, at the winner of Sunday’s game between the No. 5 Los Angeles Rams and No. 2 Chicago Bears.

“A team this successful usually has a Rolodex of superstars on the roster, and we don’t have that,” left tackle Trent Williams said of the 49ers’ injury-riddled roster. “We just have a bunch of guys that bought in, a resilient bunch, and they play to the whistle no matter what.”

Each of the 49ers’ past seven playoff appearances has included a trip to the NFC Championship Game, including a notorious one here 12 years ago that catapulted Seattle to its lone Super Bowl win.

By virtue of Sunday’s 23-19 wild-card upset in Philadelphia, the 49ers can replicate their 2021 playoff run and knock off a No. 1 seed in the divisional round, which they did in Green Bay; No. 6 Washington won last year at No. 1 Detroit, too.

Here are five ways the 49ers can prevail in this playoff rematch:

1. TACKLE

The 49ers can’t replicate what happened two weeks ago against Seattle, when their defense missed 18 tackles. The Seahawks consequently ran for 180 yards on 39 carries.

“Just make tackles. That’s what it comes down to,” defensive lineman Keion White said.

This time, Eric Kendricks steps in as the middle linebacker, and he must direct a sounder effort against Seattle’s 1-2 punch of Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker, who gained just 67 yards on 22 combined carries when the teams met in Week 1.

Of course, Fred Warner was leading the 49ers’ defense back then, and although he tested out his surgically repaired ankle this week in practice, his comeback is on hold until possibly the next round, if the 49ers make it there.

“Watching their run game the first couple of times we played them, and seeing how we made adjustments and improvements, I’m excited to see what we do,” defensive end Sam Okuayinonu said.

The 49ers’ run defense rebounded well against the Eagles, and although Saquon Barkley managed 106 yards (26 carries), the 49ers made seven tackles for loss. Barkley also got stopped for no gain by Okuayinonu (on third-and-2) and by Marques Sigle on Barkley’s painful final carry.

2. STAFF CHANGES

The 49ers have started 20 different players on offense, 22 on defense, plus three kickers this season. That’s not normal. More changes are afoot, all seemingly positive except for George Kittle’s exit against the Eagles with a torn Achilles.

Sigle, Williams, and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall are set to rejoin a lineup after the trio missed the last meeting against the Seahawks, although Pearsall remains questionable because of a knee injury that’s kept him out all but nine games this season.

The return of Williams, even if his Week 17 hamstring strain is not fully recovered, is massive. Said left guard Spencer Burford: “His presence and what he means to the team and the O-line, just having his physical presence, everybody is going to get on board and rally, especially with the standard we play with. I feel it’s going to be a good game.”

Ji’Ayir Brown (hamstring) is out after 13 straight starts, so Sigle steps back into the lineup in a familiar spot, having debuted in Seattle, to which he said: “I’ve developed more and seen more now.”

Kendricks heroically broke up a fourth-down pass to seal the 49ers’ wild-card win in his first 49ers’ start, making his encore even more enticing, whether his weak-side wingman is again Garret Wallow or regular-season starter Dee Winters.

On the Seahawks’ side, they bring back starting left tackle Charles Cross and safety Coby Bryant, the latter of whom’s return could make rookie safety Nick Emmanwori even more dangerous.

3. GET TO SAM

A plot twist literally came late this week when Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold showed up on Seattle’s injury report as questionable with a left-oblique strain. Still, Darnold is fully expected to play – and not as a double agent, in case 49ers fans think he owes them for his 2023 employment as a backup role that recharged his career.

Darnold had too long to throw (3.11 seconds on average) in the Week 18 matchup, and the 49ers are going to have to get better pressure and make his oblique discomfort factor into the mix.

When Darnold committed two turnovers and lost his playoff debut last season with the Minnesota Vikings, he was a pending free agent. In Seattle, he is the $100 million QB who just led the Seahawks to franchise records of 14 wins and 483 points. He led the NFL with a 9.2 yards-per-attempt average, but he also committed an NFL-high 20 turnovers.

Darnold’s go-to target is obviously Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had 84 yards on six catches last game. As much as Deommodore Lenoir may covet that one-on-one matchup, it will take a whole secondary to blanket JSN, to which Sigle said: “He’s on our target list.”

4. PURDY’S PROWESS

You’ve probably heard: Brock Purdy is 4-0 in Seattle, having won each of his regular-season visits, including his first road start in 2020 with broken ribs. He had Kittle in all four of those games, and they combined for five touchdowns on 16 completions.

Of course, Kittle was out with a first-half hamstring injury when Purdy rallied the 49ers in the 17-13 season-opening win here, and it was Jake Tonges who made a miraculous 4-yard touchdown catch on a Purdy prayer with 1 ½ minutes remaining.

So Tonges will be on call again, and he’s tallied 284 yards and four touchdowns when Kittle’s been sidelined. Purdy isn’t shy about using other options.

When fullback Kyle Juszczyk learned that coach Kyle Shanahan praised him for a four-catch, 49-yard effort after the wild-card win, Juszczyk said he is craving more passes.

In a season without Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver could be Demarcus Robinson (111 yards and the opening-drive touchdown last game), Jauan Jennings (Mr. Clutch in the playoffs), and, of course, Christian McCaffrey.

5. McCAFFREY’S YARDS

The Seahawks have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 26 games. Well, McCaffrey can and must do more than carry the ball. He’s the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver, both in volume (102 catches, 924 yards) and perhaps ability (see: over-the-shoulder touchdown catch on Jennings’ overthrown pass in Philly.)

McCaffrey only had eight carries (23 yards) last game against Seattle, similar to his eight carries for 25 yards in an Oct. 26 loss to Houston. The 49ers need to get the ball in his hands no matter what, or at least threaten that. They haven’t deployed Brian Robinson in the backfield with him, so perhaps that’s a wrinkle to keep Seattle’s sound defense off guard.

“It’s just about doing your job on every play, and then at the end, we just want to win,” McCaffrey said.