Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction on typhoid fever in Nepal

by Dipesh Tamrakar, Shiva Ram Naga, Esther Jung, Basudha Shrestha, Pratibha Bista Roka, Rabin Sharma Pokharel, Sabin Bikram Shah, Aarjya Tara Bajracharya, Surendra K. Mahadup, Nishan Katuwal, Kate Doyle, Jessica C. Seidman, Alice S. Carter, Stephen P. Luby, Isaac I. Bogoch, Kristen Aiemjoy, Denise O. Garrett, Rajeev Shrestha, Jason R. Andrews

Background

While typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCV) offer promise for reducing risk in endemic settings, their population-level impact remains unclear. In 2022, Nepal introduced TCV nationally on the heels of the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted healthcare services, surveillance, and potentially typhoid transmission dynamics, complicating vaccine impact evaluation. We investigated the impact of TCV introduction amid shifting typhoid burden during the pandemic.

Methods

We analyzed blood culture data from four Kathmandu Valley health facilities, comparing culture positivity for Salmonella Typhi across three periods: pre-pandemic (January 2018-March 2020); pandemic, pre-vaccine introduction (April 2020-March 2022); post-vaccine introduction (April 2022-April 2024). We used multivariable logistic regression to assess S. Typhi positivity, adjusting for month and site, stratified by TCV-eligible children and older, TCV-ineligible populations.

Results

Between January 2018 and April 2024, 62,236 blood cultures were performed. S. Typhi blood culture positivity decreased from 2.11% pre-pandemic to 0.59% during the pandemic (p < 0.001) and remained low at 0.69% after TCV introduction. Among TCV-eligible children (15 months to 15 years), odds of S. Typhi positivity during the pandemic were 47% lower than the pre-COVID period (aOR 0.53, 95% CI 0.29-0.90) and continued to decrease by 75% post-TCV introduction (aOR 0.25, 95% CI 0.11-0.55). In contrast, among vaccine-ineligible individuals (≥16 years), odds of positivity during the pandemic were 77% lower than the pre-COVID period (aOR 0.23, 95% CI 0.16-0.31) but increased by 59% following TCV rollout (aOR 1.59, 95% CI 1.14-2.27). Sensitivity analyses restricted to pathogen-positive cultures yielded similar results.

Conclusion

S. Typhi blood culture positivity declined sharply during the pandemic before TCV introduction. The subsequent rollout of TCV substantially reduced typhoid burden in vaccine-eligible children; however, rising cases among older, vaccine-ineligible populations following the relaxation of pandemic measures highlights the need for additional control measures such as improved water and sanitation infrastructure and broader age eligibility for typhoid vaccination.