The Significance Of Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s Taiwan Statement – Analysis

By Dr. Sandip Kumar Mishra

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s “ad-libbed” remark at the Lower House Budget Committee, while responding to the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) lawmaker Katsuya Okada, has made a lot of waves. She said that a Chinese military expedition against Taiwan would be a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, meaning that the Japanese Self Defense Forces (JSDF) may automatically respond. One could say that the statement wasn’t made intentionally and emerged in a moment of agitated discussion. However, Takaichi appears to be standing behind it despite prolonged outrage and protests from China. This is the first time that a sitting Japanese prime minister has taken such an explicit stand on Taiwan. In response, China appears to have unleashed its so-called ‘three-warfare’ against Japan: public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare.

China took a number of immediate steps in response, starting with asking Japan to withdraw the statement. It cut back the number of Chinese visitors to Japan—the Chinese constitute around 20 per cent of the total foreign tourists in Japan. It ordered a re-investigation of Japanese-origin seafood, and attempted to curtail the domestic availability of Japanese cultural products. Since these initial steps, China has toughened its position substantially. On 6 January 2026, it announced a ban on the export of certain dual-use rare earth elements and other items to Japan. Beijing also openly said that these restrictions are a result of Takaichi’s ‘erroneous’ comments. This is important because Chinese supplies account for 63 per cent of Japan’s total rare earths imports. China has also launched an anti-dumping probe into a chemical compound—dichlorosilane—which is imported from Japan.

Chinese military activities in the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait have also increased. On 6 December, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and J-15 fighter jets had a face-off with Japanese Air Self Defense Forces (JASDF) F-15s. Meanwhile, despite their alliance, Japan hasn’t received public support from the US, with President Trump reportedly telling Takaichi not to escalate the dispute with China, and downplaying Chinese military drills around Taiwan. Takaichi however has shown no sign of retreat. In fact, she sent her trusted advisor, Koichi Hagiuda, to Taiwan on 21 December, and other Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers are also scheduled to visit.

The Japanese prime minister’s bold move could be interpreted in various ways. First is that unlike the past, the ruling LDP’s presence has substantially reduced in parliament. Takaichi holds the PM post because of outside support from a new LDP partner: the Japan Innovation Party. It replaces Komeito, the LDP’s erstwhile partner. Sanae Takaichi herself has a thin majority in parliament. Some suggest that her provocations against China may be a bid for greater domestic popularity. Currently, Takaichi’s approval rating is more than 60 per cent. She may seek a snap poll, which could take place in early February, for the LDP to gain a comfortable majority in parliament.

Another interpretation is that Takaichi the redlines on China must change. Before coming to power, she was of the opinion that Japan must be more assertive in the Indo-Pacific. In October 2025, Takaichi said that Japan would reach the two per cent defence expenditure target two years ahead of schedule. In fact, Takaichi has previously supported the abolition of Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan. The Japanese Coast Guard, technically the first line of defence against China’s maritime advancements, is being actively strengthened. In September 2025, Japan signeda new defence pact allowing the JSDF to deploy to the Philippines. In January 2026, Japan and the Philippines signed two more defence pacts. Japan also plans to export Patriot missiles to the Philippines. In addition, it has announced plans to deploy missiles to its western-most island, Yonaguni, which is just 110 km away from Taiwan.

A third interpretation of Takaichi’s approach is that it comes against the backdrop of the strained US-Japan alliance and Trump’s forthcoming visit to China in April 2026. As per this line of thinking, Takaichi would like to utilise the window until April 2026 to do two things. One, consolidate an aggressive Japanese posture in the region, and two, impose limits on Trump’s ‘soft’ approach to China. It seems that Trump is rather busy with developments in the Western hemisphere and is interested in an acceptable truce with China. Notably, Trump characterised his meeting with President Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit as a ‘G2 summit’.

Overall, it seems that through the Taiwan card, Takaichi has sought to do several things: strengthen Japan’s position vis-à-vis China autonomously, send a message to the US, signal readiness to take China on, and finally, strengthen her and the party’s domestic positioning. Ultimately, however, Beijing’s response, the cost of military contestation, and the US approach would determine the power of the Taiwan card that Takaichi wields.

• About the author: Dr. Sandip Kumar Mishra is Professor at the Centre for East Asian Studies in SIS, JNU, and Distinguished Fellow, IPCS.
• Source: This articl was published by IPCS