Polymarket: Will the World End in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the world ends before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note that personal tragedy will not cause this market to resolve to “Yes,” no matter how disruptive it is to your daily life or sense of well-being. A breakup won’t qualify. Neither will the death of a beloved parent.
And don’t even start about losing your job. We’re all struggling, employed or not. I mean, look at me. I have a job, but I’m helping people throw their money into the void over the stupidest stuff. Want to blow a month’s rent because you’re sure Taylor Swift will drop another surprise album in this calendar year? You can if you want to.
I’m basically helping some guy run a farm for gambling addicts who want to bet on the specific way things will burn down. Well, unless you want to bet on the number of tweets Elon Musk will excrete in a fourteen-day period. Is that a more noble form of betting? Better question: Do you want my job? If that question resolves to yes for you, send me a note.
Ugh, I just took a look at the news, and given the state of everything, it feels like we should try to get ahead of a few other questions. Okay, here goes.
This market will not resolve to “Yes” as a result of any non-cataclysmic events, conflicts, or atrocities. These events include, but are not limited to, the invasion of Greenland, the collapse of the Federal Reserve, being shot by a federal agent, regardless of where the bullet enters your…
Wait, this list has to be more general, or we’ll be here all day. So it’s still a “No” in the case of general economic collapse, the dissolution of democratic rule or an associated loss of rights, a pandemic (whether it’s real or an alleged false flag operation perpetuated by so-called evil libs) (actually, throw zombie apocalypse in there, because I know one of you jerks is gonna ask), mass subjugation of people based on race or gender, or any scenario that could reasonably be described as “Thunderdome but for real.”
Put global warming on the “No” list too. I do think it’s gonna get us, but not this year.
This is still going too long. Okay, here’s the bottom line: It’s a “Yes” in the case of an extinction-level asteroid impact. Or a sudden black hole. Can that happen? Because it sounds mercifully quick. I guess we should probably put nuclear winter back on the table too. Suddenly, it’s the 1960s again, but without the sense that Jell-O and capitalism are actually making life better.
Anyway, if the asteroid hits, you can expect this market to issue payment on or before January 5, 2027, but please allow up to five business days for your bank to process the transaction.