Caleb Williams Quietly Outplayed Drake Maye In 2025 — And A New Metric Proves It
Drake Maye is going to the Super Bowl. This, along with a long stretch of the season where he was in MVP conversations, has many feeling he’s the new face of the league. Yet if you look deeper into the numbers, you could argue Caleb Williams outplayed him. To explain this, you must look at the expected completion percentage (xCOMP%) from Next Gen Stats. This stat details what a quarterback’s completion percentage should’ve been based on air distance traveled, receiver separation, and the pressure they were under.
Maye finished the season with 72% of his passes completed, but his expected completion percentage was 62.8%. Conversely, Williams finished with 58.1% but had an xCOMP% of 65%. In other words, Maye benefited from a lot of good fortune this year. His receivers rarely dropped passes, and he had a remarkable run of success throwing deep. However, you started seeing reality set in during the playoffs. In three games, Maye completed just 55.8% of his passes with two interceptions and six fumbles.
Chicago ranked fifth in wide receiver drops this year and Williams often chose to throw the ball away on several plays.
The separation between Caleb Williams and Drake Maye is minimal.
Maye finished with 4300 yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Williams had 3900 yards, 27 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. If the Bears wide receivers had been better about catching the football, there is a strong chance Williams would’ve outproduced the Patriots’ golden boy. Let’s also not forget the astounding run of good luck Maye enjoyed schedule-wise. Across 17 games, he did not play a single top 10 defense. In fact, 11 of those opponents finished in the bottom half of the league.
By contrast, Caleb Williams played two top 10 opponents and five in the top 14. He faces a considerably tougher schedule and went 4-3 with all three losses by a touchdown or less. Unlike Maye, he didn’t benefit from playing across from a top 10 defense. You can’t say the Patriots’ strong unit didn’t make life easier for him. There is no question Maye should be a star for a long time, but Williams isn’t getting enough credit for what he accomplished this season and likely will moving forward.