NOAA Just Redefined El Niño and La Niña
La Niña and El Niño are distinctions that work a bit like Groundhog Day, at least for surf-going folk. When declared, those in the eastern Pacific either demure or delight, respectively, at what surf forecasters predict will come. TL;DR: La Niña’s cooler temps bring dreary weather and fickle surf to the U.S.’s West Coast, and El Niño sends pumping surf on a warm-water conveyor belt across the Pacific.
But in a recent shift, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated what constitutes La Niña and El Niño. What was once deemed normal range—within 0.5 degrees celsius of 30-year sea temperature averages in the east-central equatorial Pacific—is now going to be based upon global tropical averages.
So what do the new scales change? Global tropical (within 20 degrees of the equator) ocean temperatures tend to be higher than the small patch of the Pacific upon which the folks at NOAA have until now been basing forecasts. Average temperatures will in effect be higher going forward, and as a result, we’ll probably see more La Niña declarations.
And what does this mean for surf forecasting? Well, nothing at all, apart from surf forecasters now having to scrutinize these declarations knowing full well that they no longer represent the relatively localized data they once used to deliver us the spoils of their wizardry. In effect, surf forecasters for the Pacific seaboard of North America might be a little more on their own, making predictions based upon those east-central equatorial Pacific temperatures that until now dictated La Niña and El Niño.
Why the change, then, anyhow? NOAA reports that the new scale now takes into account the effects of climate change, though the precise incentive(s) remain(s) unclear. While probably helpful for overall climate data, surfers on the U.S.’s West Coast (and in the wider eastern Pacific) will want to rely more heavily on surf-specific forecasts rather than these exceedingly generalized terms which now distinguish the sea temperature anomalies whose pending announcements once had them as giddy as schoolkids waiting for spring.
Will this help wider surf forecasts? Perhaps, but only time and data can truly tell.
For the record, where a dependable current long-range surf outlook is concerned, inveterate surf forecaster Mark Sponsler (of Stormsurf.com) has high hopes for an El Niño in the coming months as La Niña shows signs of rapid deterioration.