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The Time of Trump's Surprises and Putin's Alliances

The first ten days of Donald Trump saw the controversial new US president deliver on many of his campaign promises. He has disrupted usual government business and has brought a seismic shock that has shaken Washington and world capitals. The new president grabbed for his magical pen, and signed astonishing executive orders, deliberately pre-empting the traditional work of his cabinet appointees and his administration. The silver lining is that Trump has settled the debate on whether he will adapt with the post of president, and made it clear to all that he intends to put to practice all that he had pledged as candidate, heading off speculations and assumptions. The frightening news is that Trump may truly take the United States towards unravelling, and the world towards a perfect storm, crashing the international order without setting up an alternative. It might be said that the internal resistance to Donald Trump's orders and measures could force him to reconsider and back down. However, Trump for his part is betting on exhausting his opponents, as they dash to catch up with his relentless executive orders. Meanwhile, ten days into his presidency, there has been increasing talk of his impeachment, because some argue America will not allow him to dismantle it, drag it to civil war, impoverish it, harm is global influence, and allow China and Russia to take its superpower status. Trump's supporters are gloating, taunting those dreaming to topple the president. They are certain that Trump will truly make America 'great again', and that his foreign policy realism will build a new world order and unprecedented alliances, that would in turn lead to American and global prosperity. Russia is pivotal to Trump's calculations. Trump's close associates say he will not base relations with Moscow on the basis of ethical standards but on the basis of what it would take for the dealmaker in chief to cut a deal. People well familiar with Trump say he will pursue realpolitik to build alliances and modify policy on Iran and Syria, and will split the world into allies who are useful for the US and rewarded accordingly, and non-allies who will be made to pay the price for their positions and non-usefulness.

The new US envoy to the UN, Nikki Hailey, began her tenure by stressing an intent to show strength and vowed that those who don't support us will face appropriate consequences. We want to support our allies, she said, but our allies must support us too. Hailey added that the new administration will focus more on bilateral relations, perhaps at the expense of multilateral ones. Haley's statements were received with surprise when she undiplomatically threatened: "For those that don't have our back, we're taking names, we will make points to respond to that accordingly."

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