The Netherlands’ election is this year’s first test for Europe’s populists

“THERE’S something wrong with our country,” began an open letter to the Dutch people published last month. It went on to moan about those who “abuse our country’s freedom to cause havoc, when they came to our country precisely for that freedom”, and warned them to “act normal or leave”. The author was not Geert Wilders, leader of the anti-Muslim Freedom Party (PVV), but Mark Rutte, leader of the free-thinking Liberals (VVD) and prime minister of a country that presents itself as one of the most tolerant in the world. “Act normal” (doe normaal) is a common injunction in Dutch; it can mean “Don’t be obnoxious” or “Don’t be silly.” But here it had a dark, exclusionary ring.

Mr Rutte’s letter marked how much Dutch politics has changed as the country prepares for a national election on March 15th. The vote will test the strength of European populism in the era of Brexit and Donald Trump, and will be seen as a portent of the French and German elections later this year. If Mr Wilders comes first, says Cas Mudde, an expert on populism at the University of Georgia, “The media will represent him and his European collaborators as ‘...