Trump's plan for the 'biggest tax cut we've ever had' is already looking like it could be messy

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President Donald Trump told The Associated Press on Friday that he expected to roll out his plan for "maybe the biggest tax cut we've ever had" around Wednesday.

But the rollout of one of the most anticipated pieces of Trump's agenda looks to have an unsettled path toward becoming law.

"We're going to be putting that out on Wednesday or shortly thereafter," Trump told the AP. "Let me leave a little room just in case. ... And that's a big story, because a lot of people think I'm going to put it out much later."

Despite the timeline from Trump, statements from various administration officials have analysts questioning how detailed the plan will be. And it's unclear what sorts of policies it will include.

The timing could further complicate matters. The White House is also trying to reboot the Republican healthcare plan, and a partial shutdown of the federal government looms on Friday.

Surprising timeline

Trump's announcement that the tax plan would be released as early as Wednesday reportedly came as a surprise to people in the administration.

According to The New York Times, Treasury officials were taken aback, and White House aides subsequently clarified Trump's comments and said the plan would be a "broad" outline.

Mick Mulvaney, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, has said it is unlikely the administration will release a full plan until June at the earliest.

Given these issues, analysts expect the rollout will not be a firm plan or legislative text, but rather a vague outline of what Trump wants to get done.

"If there is a release on Wednesday, we expect only a vague generalization of President Trump's goals in the coming tax reform effort," Isaac Boltansky and Lukas Davaz of the political research firm Compass Point wrote in a note on Monday.

Edward Mills of the investment bank FBR also predicted the plan would be underwhelming.

"We expect the plan to provide broad outlines and principles but be short on specifics," Mills wrote.

Muddled policy

Trump's White House doesn't yet have an answer on one of the most basic principles of a tax plan: whether the plan would add to the federal debt or be revenue neutral. Mulvaney told Fox News' Chris Wallace in an interview on "Fox News Sunday" that the Trump team hadn't decided that or for how long the tax cut would be in effect.

"Keep in mind, we have — it's a balancing act in that, Chris," Mulvaney said. "You can either have a small tax cut that's permanent or a large tax cut that is short-term. I don't think we decided that, but you'll know more on Wednesday."

At the same time, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the plan would be a long-term overhaul of the tax code that would add to the debt in the short term, according to The Washington Post.

On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump told staffers to make sure that corporate tax rate was cut to 15% even if the plan would add to the national debt. Additionally, Mnuchin told reporters at the White House daily briefing that the plan would add to the deficit but eventually "the tax plan will pay for itself with economic growth."

The varying ideas that have been thrown around for the plan make it difficult to guess what it will look like.

Reports had indicated that the plan would include a carbon tax — an idea scorned by Republicans but favored by Democrats. The White House denied those reports, but according to Politico, the idea led to fractures among White House advisers.

Other ideas the White House has reportedly considered include a value-added tax, a border-adjustment tax, and the elimination of the state and local tax exemption for federal taxes.

Even the headline tax rate is in question. Trump maintained during the campaign that he would cut corporate taxes to 15% from the current federal statutory rate of 35%.

Since then, however, Trump has told manufacturing CEOs in a meeting that the rate would be between 15% and 20%, and reports have indicated it could be as high as 28%.

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