Oh, you think the government will regulate Kalshi and Polymarket? Wanna bet?
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has a problem: It's not very good at policing insider trading. And insider trading has become a pressing concern for prediction markets.
Even Kalshi's recently publicized fines for insider trading - levied against a politician and an employee of YouTube influencer MrBeast - were effectively self-policing. The exchange says it's opened 200 investigations, frozen some accounts, and had a dozen of its investigations turn into active cases.
"The volume of suspicious activity we see is significantly higher than what any platform publicly acknowledges."
In response to Kalshi's announcement, the CFTC put …