What happens next in Venezuela? The regime’s foundation remains in place even after U.S. capture of Maduro, analyst says

The U.S. military’s capture, arrest and extraction of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro still leaves the regime in place for now, according to an expert on the region.

President Donald Trump is due to speak later on Saturday, but U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi said Maduro, who is currently on a Navy ship en route to the U.S., will face narco-terrorism charges after an indictment in New York.

“I will really underline here that it is very early. We don’t understand what the plan for a possible transition could be,” Elizabeth Dickinson, senior analyst for the Andes region at the International Crisis Group, told CNN. “But at the moment everything indicates that the base of the regime, everything that held together the Maduro government, continues to be in place.”

In particular, she noted that the defense minister and the interior affairs minister are hardliners and still appear to remain in power at the moment.

Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, considered an enforcer for Maduro, reportedly appeared on state television wearing a bulletproof vest and sounded defiant.

He claimed the government has everything under control, while calling on the military and police to maintain order. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez also called on regime supporters to take to the streets.

According to Dickinson, the key questions in the immediate future are who has control over critical infrastructure what are the security conditions on the ground.

That will provide critical clues as to how the situation will unfold. But for now, Maduro’s top lieutenants are still in charge.

“So removing Maduro did not necessarily change the fundamental equation of control,” Dickinson said.

To be sure, there will be relief among segments of the Venezuelan population as Maduro ruled over an oppressive government, she said.

And while the country has the world’s largest proved oil reserves, years of sanctions and mismanagement have put the economy in free-fall.

“Venezuela is living day-to-day. We’re talking about a situation of resource scarcity and families that are having to eat sometimes only two times a day,” Dickinson added. “And the way that the government has consolidated its power has really been through that redistribution of limited resources, handing out both food but also just basic supplies to its allies, while again repressing any attempts to stand up against it.”

Meanwhile, international reaction to Trump’s removal of Maduro has been mixed. Few governments in Latin America recognized Maduro’s reelection in 2024, but Mexico said the U.S. military action violated international law. But Trump ally and Argentine President Javier Milei praised the move.

Maduro backers Russia and Iran condemned the his arrest, while the European Union’s top diplomat was cautious, pointing out that the EU has said Maduro lacks legitimacy while calling for a peaceful transition.

“Under all circumstances, the principles of international law and the UN Charter must be respected. We call for restraint,” Kaja Kallas posted on X.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com