Storm system brings severe threat tomorrow, heavy rain threat through Saturday
The pattern is about to get very active across the area. Today was a nice day, however, with temperatures in the mid-60s. Some high clouds are beginning to move overhead and clouds will continue to increase through tonight.
For tomorrow, warm temperatures will surge northward as low pressure develops to our northwest. This will cause gusty southerly winds, in the 10-20 mph range, gusting as high as 30 mph at times. Storms will begin to move across the area early in the morning, but these will likely be 'elevated' storms, meaning they'll originate higher in the atmosphere, as a warm front lifts northward. For this reason, morning activity shouldn't be severe. Later in the day, however, low pressure brings a more unstable airmass into the area, along with higher wind shear. The instability will be lacking with this system tomorrow, so we'll have to see if that plays a factor in limiting the severe weather threat. Wind shear will be on the higher side though, so wind-damaging storms and tornado-producing storms may be possible across southeastern Texas/southwestern Louisiana during the afternoon hours shifting eastward later in the night.
A line of storms will develop later in the night, most likely working across Acadiana sometime Friday morning. The front causing these storms will stall across the area on Friday, however, sending multiple waves of storms through the area. These waves of storms will continue to affect us until Saturday, when the front finally moves east of the area. In that timeframe, higher rainfall totals from multiple rounds of thunderstorms could be possible. Both our in-house model and the reliable HRRR model show the potential for a swath of 3-6 inches of rainfall Thursday through Saturday morning, with isolated higher amounts always possible.
If we see these totals over a 36-hour timespan we will be fine, but seeing these totals within a 6-12 hour timespan would become problematic. These high-resolution models are notorious for coming in aggressive and having run-to-run changes, so we'll see if they keep this solution through the next 24 hours.
We're expected to clear out Sunday and through early next week!