What Do the Final New York Mayoral-Race Polls Say?
New York City’s mayoral race is in its final week. For months, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani has led his competitors, independent candidate Andrew Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, by double digits, and that picture of the race has largely held steady. However, recent polling has suggested that the former governor could be gaining ground in the contest, though that potential shift comes as hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers have already cast their early vote ballots. Here’s what the latest polling shows and how betting markets are looking at the highly contested mayoral race.
Polymarket: A dip for Zohran among bettors
On October 28, prediction market Polymarket said that Mamdani, while still favored in the election, saw his odds for victory take a dip into the high 80 percent range. Just one day earlier, Polymarket indicated the Democratic nominee had a 95 percent chance of victory.
BREAKING: Mamdani's odds collapse in NYC Mayoral Election.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 28, 2025
If he continues falling at the rate he has the past 24h, Cuomo would be the projected winner. pic.twitter.com/2C18Ec3QWd
Manhattan Institute: Mamdani at 43 percent
The Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, released poll results on October 28 finding Mamdani continuing to hold onto his double-digit lead in the race. The assemblyman received 43 percent among likely voters, followed by 28 percent for Cuomo and 19 percent for Sliwa. The think tank surveyed 600 likely voters for the 2025 NYC mayoral election from October 22 to October 26.
The poll also looked at hypothetical head-to-head matchups, with the results indicating that Mamdani would beat Cuomo 44 to 40 percent if they were the only two candidates in the race.
Suffolk University: Cuomo gains by ten points
In a Suffolk University poll released October 27, Mamdani led the field among likely voters with 44 percent followed by Cuomo with 34 percent and Sliwa with 11 percent. Only 7 percent of voters said they were undecided. Notably, Cuomo increased his margin by about ten points as the former governor previously trailed Mamdani 45 to 25 percent in Suffolk University’s poll in September.
The new poll surveyed 500 likely general-election voters and it was conducted from October 23 to October 26 after Adams endorsed Cuomo.