For American workers, generative AI threatens an already unstable future
As the U.S. government encourages further AI development by the private sector, it’s clear that there's no turning back on the technology.
The AI genie of artificial general intelligence, or AGI, which reportedly is close to being able to do anything the human brain can do, cannot be put back in its bottle and may soon become uncontrollable, greatly impacting the lives of Americans.
In their recent open letter warning of the potential risks of AGI, more than 1,000 luminaries in the artificial intelligence field say the development of AGI is out of control and evolving systems with human-competitive intelligence pose profound risks to society and humanity. They are calling for a moratorium on systems above a certain capacity for at least six months.
In addition to the letter, articles are sprouting up across the media landscape concerning the worrisome and unsettling consequences of AI. Many top academics and researchers have expressed concerns that there is about a 10 percent or greater chance of human extinction due to future advanced AI systems.
But long before that, the demographic group expected to be impacted the most is the global workforce.
Various organizations and workers, especially those with white-collar jobs, have expressed concerns that AI may cause severe job disruption, making many of their activities obsolete and taking over their jobs.
Recent research indicates that AI could affect the work tasks of approximately 80 percent of the U.S. workforce; about 166 million men and women. Also, one survey reported that 62 percent of job seekers said they were concerned that AI could derail their careers.
This comes during a time when demographic and economic headwinds are transforming the labor force. More than 50 percent of U.S. adults age 55 and older said they had retired due to COVID in a 2021 Pew Research Center survey. More recently, record inflation has forced many others to reconsider their plans, with 40 percent of workers over 45 reportedly expecting to delay retirement due to increased expenses. Additionally, many women working lower-income jobs without college degrees are still recovering from COVID layoffs that heavily impacted their sectors. Reportedly, 1.6 million fewer women were in the workforce in January than there were in February 2020.
It’s clear, now more than ever, that Americans still need to work. However, recent research estimates that generative AI could automate a quarter of the work done in the U.S. One generative AI model, ChatGPT, had more than 1 million users in just five days after its launch in November and now has 25 million people using it daily. As generative AI contributes to labor cost savings, adds new jobs and increases productivity, it is raising the chances of a productivity boom, but could also raise the chances of a labor crisis.
That said, many of the darkest predictions about generative AI may be overblown. Considering all that human intelligence has already done to the planet’s climate, environment, wildlife, natural resources and the impact of pollution, it’s difficult to imagine how artificial intelligence could do worse with respect to the survival of the world’s 8 billion human inhabitants.
Given America’s dismal record in addressing global warming, biodiversity loss, environmental degradation and other major problems facing the country, it’s difficult to see how the U.S. will be able to control the development of AI systems with human-competitive intelligence that could pose profound risks to society and humanity. Open letters to governments in the recent past from thousands of scientists warning of untold suffering and declaring a climate emergency have had relatively little effect on America’s policies. This isn’t a great sign for the potential impact of the AGI open letter.
But lawmakers are paying attention. Two years ago, Congress created a new government office, The White House AI Initiative Office, to coordinate AI research across government agencies and direct an interagency task force to develop a strategic plan with research priorities, ethical concerns and environmental issues.
At the start of this year, the National Artificial Intelligence Research Task Force (NAIRR) presented its final report to the president and members of Congress. That report provides a roadmap for establishing a national research infrastructure that would broaden access to the resources essential to AI research and development.
As the U.S. government encourages further AI development by the private sector, it’s clear that there's no turning back on the technology. What is not at all clear is whether America will be able to control its rapid evolution.
Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, "Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials.”