Trump faces test of endorsement power in Ohio

Former President Trump is looking for a knockout win in the Ohio Senate GOP primary in the latest race to test the strength of his endorsement. 

Trump is backing businessman Bernie Moreno in the Republican contest to take on Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in November, while Gov. Mike DeWine (R) and former Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) are throwing their weight behind state Sen. Matt Dolan (R). 

Though many of Trump’s endorsed picks have prevailed in their primaries, recent polling in the Buckeye State suggests Dolan could end that streak and hand a win to the more establishment-minded Republicans who have often been at odds with the former president. 

“Certainly having Trump's endorsement helps,” said Republican strategist Matt Dole, referring to Moreno. “It's not a hindrance. But having Mike DeWine’s support helps. He's still a pretty popular guy among a pretty significant segment of the population.” 

The Ohio Senate GOP primary has become an especially tight race among Moreno, Dolan and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Trump endorsed the GOP businessman in December, while the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm has notably stayed out of the race. 

The former president and his allies have campaigned for Moreno in recent days as the primary gets down to the wire. Trump campaigned in Vandalia, Ohio, on Saturday, where he dubbed Dolan a “weak RINO” — or "Republican in name only" — and argued that “he’s trying to become the next Mitt Romney,” a vocal Trump critic. 

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) has also campaigned with Moreno, in addition to Arizona Senate hopeful Kari Lake and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R), who has spurred speculation that she could be Trump’s pick for vice president.  

“President Trump's endorsement remains the most powerful endorsement in Republican politics, and Ohio is no exception,” a Moreno spokesperson told The Hill.

“This weekend, 15,000 Ohioans showed up to support President Trump and Bernie — no other campaign sees that kind of energy. While Matt Dolan kowtows to the establishment RINO wing of the GOP, Bernie is proud to stand with President Trump and the entire America First movement."  

Polling has suggested the race is neck and neck. An Emerson College Polling survey released Monday found Moreno at 38 percent support, Dolan at 29 percent and LaRose at 12 percent, with 21 percent of surveyed voters undecided or picking someone else.  

The race becomes much closer, however, when undecided voters are factored into the poll, with Moreno at 44 percent support, Dolan at 40 percent and LaRose at 16 percent. The gap between Moreno and Dolan falls within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, effectively tying the businessman and state senator.  

A similar survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill released last week found Dolan at 26 percent support, Moreno at 23 percent and LaRose at 16 percent, with 32 percent of surveyed voters undecided or picking someone else. 

Republican strategists have cautioned against reading too much into the strength of Trump’s endorsement if Moreno fails to cross the finish line Tuesday. 

“The other bad take if Moreno wins, which I predict he will, the other bad take would be, ‘There's no possible way to get any support without falling on your knees in front of Donald Trump and kissing his toes,’” said GOP strategist Mark Weaver.  

“That's also not true because if Moreno wins, it will be very close,” he continued. “Dolan will have earned millions of votes, and he didn't prostrate himself in front of Donald Trump.” 

Yet it’s unclear what role Trump’s endorsement might play in the primary.

“I don't know,” DeWine said Sunday on CNN when asked how much of a factor Trump was in the GOP primary.  

But DeWine alluded to the fact that a PAC with ties to another organization aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has aired advertising seeking to elevate Moreno in the GOP primary, presumably because Democrats would prefer to compete against him.

“The Democrats’ senatorial committee clearly thinks that he's the strongest candidate, too, because amazingly they came in here in the last three or four days with several million dollars to promote Bernie Moreno as his opponent, and they obviously think that Dolan is the strongest candidate,” DeWine said.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) was not involved in the ad.

DSCC spokesperson Maeve Coyle projected confidence about Democrats’ odds in the race, regardless of who emerges Tuesday. 

“This expensive, bruising primary has been a disaster for Republicans and Sherrod Brown will defeat whichever candidate limps out of this damaging intra-party fight,” she said in a statement.

Brian Darling, a Republican strategist who donated to Moreno’s campaign, suggested Trump’s endorsement “may be a tiebreaker in this race” but argued that even if Moreno doesn’t prevail, it won’t make Trump’s endorsement less important. 

“I mean, candidates seek out the endorsement of Donald Trump, and ... it's helped them in so many different races,” he explained.